Asian Metals Market Update for 18th March

March 18, 2025

Hyperbullish momentum and hyper-bullish media in gold and silver are food for thought for some mild correction and/or sharp two-way price moves. The Donkey or a Bee are all bullish on the gold and silver. I will be cautiously bullish on gold and silver for the next thirty days. Day traders and short-term investors need to use caution on their gold/silver investments despite all the overhype. My experience is that correction or a sharp, short-lived sell-off, in any asset class, comes when we least expect it. I am not asking you to short gold/silver. My intent is to ensure that you are caught long in gold just when the price is seen as a short-term sell-off.

Long-term investors, and long-term traders, need not worry an iota. As of date, spot gold will not fall below $2400 (in the next eighteen months, under the worst-case scenario) with infinity as the price target. Only the pace of rise will vary. Technical traders these days use a twenty percent fall to average or believe that twenty percent price corrections are a part of the long-term bullish trend. I am using the twenty percent formula for investment decisions in gold and silver.

FIRST-TIME TRADER IN COMMODITY DERIVATIVE – how to start

Higher Closing Time in MCX: In India, MCX opens at 9:00 and closes at 11:30 pm/11:55 pm. Indian stock markets open at 9:00 pm and close at 3:30 pm. There is a big time difference between the closing time of stock markets in India and MCX closing time. First-time intraday traders in commodity futures in India need to understand that they need to view trading screens for quite a long time as compared to stocks.
Commodity prices are affected more by global news and global developments than local news in India or any other country.
Risk: I give the highest risk to commodity derivatives. Your margin money can get converted into zero in less than a second on a bad trade if there is some global news. I not trying to scare you. This is the reality. Do Not trade by social media group views. It is your money. Loss is yours. Profit is yours. No one will share your losses. Understanding commodity derivative risk is the first step toward trading/investing in commodity derivatives.
Compartmentalize: Set a fixed amount of money with which you can trade in commodity derivatives. The amount is indirectly the stop loss money. In case the stop losses are triggered and the margin money is zero, you are not financially affected. I have seen families facing huge hardship due to trading losses in commodity derivatives. My intent is to make sure that we do not take undue excessive risk in a way that hampers our own financial net worth.

I see a lot of delivery-based retail stock traders in India, jumping to the commodity derivative bandwagon with zero knowledge. MCX turnover is seeing new historical highs every week in most of the commodities. Falling stock markets in India and rising gold/silver prices have resulted in huge new entrants or first-time entrants in MCX commodity derivatives. I am just trying to create an awareness of the risk and ensure that your capital is intact. More on how to trade/invest in commodity derivatives in the future.

SPOT SILVER – current price $33.92

TODAY VIEW: Spot silver can rise to $34.95 or more as long as it trades over $33.50.
A mild sell-off will be there only if spot silver trades below $33.69 today.
Views are intraday.

Disclaimer

The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.

Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT