Asian Metals Market Update: 2023 Technical View

2023 TECHNICAL VIEW (SHORT VIEW)

Spot Gold: (Closing price on 30^th December 2022 $1823.23)

• 20% higher from closing price on 30^th December: $2187.80
• 20% lower than closing price on 30^th December: $1458.80
• 2023 supports: $1595.30, $1631.10 and $1732.50
• 2023 resistances: 2015.30, $2051.20 and $2279.10
• View for 2023: Gold can rise to $2051.20 and $2279.10 as long as it trades over $1732.50.
• Crash or sell off will be there only if gold does not break $2015.30 after June FOMC meeting to $1631.10 and $1595.30 and more. (highly unlikely as of now).

Spot Silver      : (Closing price on 30^th December 2022 $23.94)

• 20% higher from closing price on 30^th December: $28.73
• 20% lower than closing price on 30^th December: $19.15
• 2023 supports: 17.68, $19.24 and $21.71
• 2023 resistances: $26.15, $28.64, $30.20 and $36.46
• View: Silver can rise to $30.20 and $36.46 in 2023 as long as it trades over $19.15.
• All the price fall up to $19.15 will be a part and parcel of the bullish trend.
• Crash or sell off will be there if silver does not break $26.15 by 5^th May (after May FOMC meeting).

COMEX GOLD FEBRURY 2023 (closing price on 30^th December 2022 $1826.20)

• 20% higher from closing price on 30^th December: $2191.40
• 20% lower than closing price on 30^th December: $1460.90
• 2023 supports: 1541.40, $1633.60 and $1717.30
• 2023 resistances: $2018.30, $2056.20 and $2286.50
• View: Comex gold near dated future has to trade over $1717.30 on daily closing basis in 2023 to rise to $2018.30 and $2286.50.
• Crash or sell off in comex gold future will be there if gold does not break $2018.30 after June FOMC meeting.

COMEX SILVER MARCH 2023 (closing price on 30^th December 2022 $2404.00)

• 20% higher from closing price on 30^th December: $2884.80
• 20% lower than closing price on 30^th December: $1923.20
• 2023 supports: $1777.50, $1920.20 and $2186.20
• 2023 resistances: 2663.20, $2929.70 and $3434.50.
• View: Silver has to trade over $1923.00 in 2023 to rise to $2929, $3072 and $3434.00.
• Crash or sell off in silver will be there if silver does not break $2663.00 initial resistance after May FOMC meeting.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (February 2023) Closing price on 30^th December 2022: $80.26

• 20% higher from closing price on 30^th December: $96.30
• 20% lower than closing price on 30^th December: $64.20
• 2023 supports: $50.05, $66.00
• 2023 resistances: $94.50, $110.40 and $140.60
• View: Crude oil needs to trade over $57.10-$64.20 wider range in 2023 to rise to $110.40 and $140.60.
• Crude oil will crash if it does not break $110.40 by end September to $50.05 and more.

COMEX COPPER MARCH 2023 (closing price on 30^th December 2022 $381.05)

• 20% higher from closing price on 30^th December: 457.20
• 20% lower than closing price on 30^th December: $304.80
• 2023 supports:285.60, $308.70, $346.90
• 2023 resistances: $415.20, $453.40 and $525.70
• Copper View for 2023: Copper can rise to $525.70 in the last quarter of 2023 as long as it trades over $346.90.
• I expect copper to fall or trade with a softer bias in the first six months of 2023 followed by a parabolic rise in the latter half of 2023.
• Crash or sell off in copper will be there if copper does not break $453.40 after June FOMC meeting.

Theoretically any investment avenue is bullish in the subsequent year as long as it does not fall below twenty percent from the closing price of previous year. I do not expect gold price to fall by more than twenty percent in 2023 under the worst case scenario. Copper and silver will crash by more than twenty percent in 2023 if and only global stock markets see a daily lower close for fifteen consecutive trading days and more. Crude oil will be very volatile in 2023. If recession concerns evaporate then crude oil will near $150.0. However, chances of $50.00 first will be very high as long as recession concerns stays. Industrial metal traders should focus on supply news more than demand news in 2023.