Asian Metals Market Update for 24th March

March 24, 2025

Social media and news media are all giving hyper bullish view on gold with targets in excess of $6000 and more. Some are comparing gold to silver. Some are comparing gold to other asset classes. In my view, no doubt gold price are in a long term bullish trend. Predicting the pace of rise of gold price is just a wild guess and nothing else. Why? Till September 2024, most of the Indian media was hyper bullish in Indian stock markets. But Indian stock markets have seen a short-term bearish trend but aligned with long term bullish outlook. The same can happen with gold price. Gold price can correct anytime, if not in the second quarter, then in third quarter and thereafter. The future gold price fall/correction (if any) will make you nervous and some could book loss (in gold investment) just out of fear and nervousness. My message is to convey that you do not get into the situation, wherein you need to book losses in gold investment if and when a short-term bearish trend arrives.

My personal preference has always been silver over gold for long term investment. I will not change my preference. I trade only in MCX silver futures and never in MCX gold future. Long term industrial use of silver makes me believe that the physical silver shortage will be there than the best of forecast. Those who are interested in silver, should google and read articles by the legendary “James Turk”.

The upcoming second quarter will be the most unpredictable quarter for gold, silver, non-ferrous metals. Outcome of Trade Tariff War will be somewhat known by the end of second quarter. Ukraine peace process will be there or not there. Global economic impact due to trade war will give early signals as well. A single bad trade or a single bad short-term investment (in precious metals derivative and non-ferrous metals derivative) will nearly erode your capital. Protect yourself against trading losses. Avoid trading with FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and there will be very high probability that you will avoid short term trading losses.

MCX India, is launching 10 gram gold futures from 1^st April. Now every one can easily trade in gold in India. These are monthly contract. Suppose global gold price crashes at odd hours say 10:45 pm Indian Time. You will not be able to buy physical gold 10:45 pm. MCX gold 10 gram future ensures that we can buy MCX 10 gram gold futures at night and odd hours. The next day we physical gold from the market and square off the MCX gold future. (this is just a hypothetical example). “Hedging by the Masses” is MCX ten gram gold future. (Disclosure: I own a few shares of MCX limited. I do not represent MCX limited in any form. I am just an individual trader.)

SPOT GOLD – current price $3017.60

TODAY’S VIEW: Spot gold has to trade over $3022.00 to rise to $3054.00, $3082.00 and more.
Mild sells off will be there if spot gold trades below $3022.00 after London open and till days close.
Key intraday support in case of a sell off is around $2988.00.
Views are intraday.

Disclaimer

The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.

The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.

I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.

Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT