Why do I prefer to use the crash of March/April (in gold/silver) to invest for the New Year?
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GOLD -- CME/COMEX NEAR DATED GOLD FUTURE |
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MARCH |
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APRIL |
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HIGH |
LOW |
CLOSE |
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HIGH |
LOW |
CLOSE |
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2019 |
$1,324.50 |
$1,280.80 |
$1,293.00 |
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$1,314.70 |
$1,267.90 |
$1,285.70 |
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2020 |
$1,704.30 |
$1,450.90 |
$1,583.40 |
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$1,788.80 |
$1,576.00 |
$1,694.20 |
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2021 |
$1,757.40 |
$1,673.30 |
$1,713.80 |
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$1,798.40 |
$1,706.40 |
$1,767.70 |
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2022 |
$2,078.80 |
$1,888.30 |
$1,949.20 |
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$2,003.00 |
$1,870.90 |
$1,911.70 |
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2023 |
$2,014.90 |
$1,813.40 |
$1,969.00 |
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$2,063.40 |
$1,965.90 |
$1,999.10 |
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2024 |
$2,234.10 |
$2,047.00 |
$2,217.40 |
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$2,448.80 |
$2,249.10 |
$2,302.90 |
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2025 |
$3,132.50 |
$2,866.30 |
$3,086.50 |
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$3,509.90 |
$2,970.40 |
$3,319.10 |
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31ST DECEMBER CLOSING PRICE |
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2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
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2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
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$1,523.10 |
$1,895.10 |
$1,828.60 |
$1,826.00 |
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$2,071.80 |
$2,641.00 |
$4,341.10 |
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% RISE FROM CLOSING PRICE OF APRIL |
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2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
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2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
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18.46% |
11.85% |
3.44% |
-4.48% |
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3.63% |
14.68% |
30.79% |
- In most of the years gold has given a year positive return as compared to the closing price of April of any year since 2019.
- Gold is money on purchasing power parity. The paper cash or the electronic cash generally sees a decline of ten percent every year on purchasing power parity basis. A negative return of 5% in 2022 is nothing as compared to cash which we keep in banks.
- Before 2019, investment demand was less in India as traders preferred stocks and mutual funds and real estate. Physical demand in India will continue to rise till there are humans in Indian sub-continent.
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SILVER --- CME/COMEX NEAR DATED SILVER FUTURE |
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MARCH |
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APRIL |
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HIGH |
LOW |
CLOSE |
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HIGH |
LOW |
CLOSE |
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2019 |
$1,566.50 |
$1,495.00 |
$1,511.00 |
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$1,531.00 |
$1,470.00 |
$1,490.00 |
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2020 |
$1,761.50 |
$1,164.00 |
$1,415.60 |
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$1,630.00 |
$1,389.50 |
$1,489.80 |
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2021 |
$2,717.50 |
$2,374.00 |
$2,453.20 |
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$2,673.00 |
$2,427.00 |
$2,585.30 |
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2022 |
$2,749.50 |
$2,404.50 |
$2,513.30 |
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$2,649.50 |
$2,273.50 |
$2,304.00 |
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2023 |
$2,431.00 |
$1,994.50 |
$2,415.60 |
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$2,623.50 |
$2,372.50 |
$2,499.90 |
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2024 |
$2,597.50 |
$2,271.00 |
$2,491.60 |
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$2,990.50 |
$2,485.50 |
$2,639.10 |
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2025 |
$3,549.50 |
$3,163.50 |
$3,481.40 |
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$3,515.50 |
$2,754.50 |
$3,253.10 |
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31ST DECEMBER CLOSING PRICE |
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2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
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2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
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$1,792.10 |
$2,641.00 |
$2,335.20 |
$2,425.00 |
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$2,408.60 |
$2,924.20 |
$7,060.30 |
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% RISE FROM CLOSING PRICE OF APRIL |
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2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
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2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
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20.27% |
77.27% |
-9.67% |
5.25% |
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-3.65% |
10.80% |
117.03% |
- Silver has also given more or less a positive return every year since 2019 (as compared to the closing price of April every year).
- Between 2010 and 2018, silver returns were relatively subdued compared to gold. Silver investment is not for the weak-hearted and/or low-risk takers.
- Silver and industrial metals move in a five-year to seven-year cycle. I believe that the 2025 new bullish cycle will continue till 2029 at a minimum.
- Silver and industrial metals will move into a multiyear bearish trend when targeted growth rates are not achieved with zero interest rates (ZIRP) and negative interest rates. (NIRP).
- But overall, if one has a higher risk appetite, then a crash or March/April any year gives a very good opportunity to invest in silver for the long term.
Even with the Iran War and subsequent fears of inflation and interest rate hikes, I expect outperformance by gold, silver, and copper as compared to most asset classes. The only risk, in my view, is Asian central banks selling gold to stabilize a rising current account deficit. If crude oil trades over $110.00 for a few continuous months, then I expect a bearish trend for one to two quarters.
There will be a FOMO rally (Fear of missing out) in gold, silver, and copper if the bullish trend continues on or after 8th April 2026.
Quarter-end position squaring and rebuilding have started. Traders will be long for the second quarter. I am bullish for the second quarter in precious metals and non-ferrous metals. However, it is difficult to predict the pace of rise for the second quarter.
Spot Silver – Current Market Price $71.33
- 100 day simple MA: $79.10
- 200 day simple MA: $62.27
- TODAY VIEW: Spot silver has to trade over $69.42 to rise to $79.10 and more.
- Mild sell off will be there if spot silver trades below $70.77 initial support.
- There will be very sharp two way prices. Intraday traders need to use strict higher trailing stop loss.
- Views are intraday unless otherwise specified.
DISCLAIMER: The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.
Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
- ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
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- PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
- PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
- THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
- ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
- ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE
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