India has just restricted silver bar imports. India’s Silver imports jumped to $11.4 billion in fiscal 2025-26 (April 2025 to March 2026), and reserves fell 5.2% to $691 billion. In April, silver imports jumped 157% from a year earlier to $411 million, trade ministry data showed.
India is taking steps to prevent unnecessary forex outflows in these tough times. I believe that all this will be reversed (including higher customs duty on gold imports) once the Iran War gets over and global crude oil supplies start their northward direction.
Silver futures trading volume will zoom in India as they are now the easiest way to invest in silver. I do not know how the silver ETF manages in case there is a very large inflow. I also do not know about the new laws applicable to silver ETFs in India. (after the above restriction to bar silver imports.)
Physical premiums for both gold and silver will rise in India. I prefer not to get lured by high silver premiums (if any) over the coming weeks to sell. There will always be a lure to sell physical silver in case premiums rise in an absurd way.
Large layoffs of jewelry workers are my worry. This is a sector that is still highly unorganized. Large jewelers may not fire any worker as they have sufficient reserves to tide them over the next few months before the festive season in October. The rest of the workers will suffer. I hope the government announces schemes for the reemployment of jewelry sector workers.
Partial capital control can happen in India if the Iran war continues into the third quarter. India could pave the way for other countries to act in a similar way and temporarily restrict gold imports and silver imports. This is one of the reasons why I have always preferred to invest in physical gold and physical silver for the long term. Futures trading only for the short term.
Investment in physical gold and physical assets is for the long term and should not be confused with short-term investments. Also, do not worry if the price consolidates for a very long time. The young generation of investors and traders born in or after the year 2000 tracks prices every day and makes decisions accordingly. A lot of my friends’ sons keep on asking me about the daily physical price trend and have physical holdings in March-April. They continuously ask if price consolidates for a long time. Depending on tenure of investment, I will suggest to avoid looking at price (of gold and silver) every few hours daily.
Gold price targets in USD — major banks (updated week ending May 15, 2026):
• J.P. Morgan → $6,300
• UBS → $6,200 (bull case: $7,200)
• Wells Fargo → $6,100–$6,300
• Bank of America → $6,000
• RBC Capital Markets → $5,723 (2026 avg) / $6,500 by end 2027
• BMO Capital Markets → $6,500 by end 2027
• Goldman Sachs → $5,400
• ING → $5,000
• Commerzbank → $5,000
• Morgan Stanley → $4,800
(Source: Twitter/X)
I have a much higher target than any of the above for both gold and silver. I will be worried if and only if spot gold trades below $3800.00 for six consecutive weeks. I am an investor in physical silver but I do book profit if and when I see chance of fifteen percent sustained price fall.
Big three days ahead for gold, silver and copper from a technical perspective. There will be short term technical breakdown if there is a falling trend today and tomorrow and Wednesday. Incoming news from Iran will be the key. CME gold June future will expire in two weeks from now. Volatility will be on the higher side.
Spot Silver – Current Market Price $74.96
- 100 day simple MA: $81.02
- 50 day simple MA: $75.58
- 200 day simple MA: $70.25. (this is the medium term support.)
- VIEW : Spot silver has to trade over $73.43 on daily closing basis today and this week to be in a bullish zone and rise to $78.70, $83.20 and more.
- Crash or sell off will be there if spot silver trades below $73.43 after USA open and till days close to $69.90 and more.
- Views are intraday unless otherwise specified.
- Low risk traders and low risk takers trading in silver (spot, future and ETF) should preferably be an intraday trader till end June. I expect a big gap open in Asia (Singapore open) every day till end June in spot silver.
- A systematic investment plan (SIP) or monthly SIP (physical or ETF, your choice) is the best way to invest in silver for the low-risk takers.
- Derivative trading in silver is not for the low-risk takers.
- Please asses your own risk profile if you intend to do derivative trade in silver or trade in silver future in any commodity exchange of the world.
DISCLAIMER: The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.
Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
- ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
- Follow us on Twitter @chintankarnani
- PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
- PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
- THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
- ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
- ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE
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