Asian Metals Market Update for 7th July 2026

July 07, 2026

There is speculation that India will come up with a “Gold Monetization Scheme” wherein people will be asked to give physical gold to the government in return for (i) Interest rates on gold and (ii) Tax breaks. The scheme has yet to be announced. This is just speculation. Indian official demand for gold will be more or less zero except for smuggled gold. (If the scheme is successful.)

When you ask to have your deposited physical gold returned, the state will try to lure you into taking money instead of physical gold. Money will be easily spent mostly to increase lifestyle. This was experienced in India during the rupee demonetization scheme. Gold in any form is generally not sold by Indians and Asians in general. The “Gold Monetization Scheme,” if any, will be bullish for the Indian economy but will create generations of debt. The future generation of India will be born in high debt and die with high debt.

{On a personal level, I am asking my close circle of friends and relatives not to accept the proposed government bait! Gold is bought mainly with black money or untaxed money in India. Your gold (which you give to the state) will attract tax authorities' scrutiny. There is a limit to which one can show inherited gold. India has a history of retrospective tax laws. It will be foolish to believe the state on the issue of giving gold purchased with untaxed income.)

India’s lower gold demand (if any) will have a temporary negative impact on the global gold price. The pace of rise will slow, but not the real rise. July to mid-September is generally a lean period for gold bulls.

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has waived gold futures fees for one year. It has triggered significant changes in the flow of physical gold, and a large number of gold bars are being shipped from London, the United States and Europe to Asia.

Central banks brought 41 tonnes of gold in May. The WGC’s ninth annual Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey found that 89% of central bankers expect global gold reserves to rise over the next 12 months. A record 45% said they expect their own institution’s reserves to increase (up from 43% last year and just 29% two years ago).

Every incoming news item adds to the bullish long-term factors. A breakout and/or even a wider-range price consolidation for a few weeks can start a new wave of gains.

US IPO of SK Hyunix and other large tech companies will result in short-term hot money traders preferring to invest in these IPO’s away from gold.

There is no major US economic data release for the next two weeks. Energy prices have fallen since June. Supplies of critical industrial products have increased from the Persian Gulf. Inflation expectations will be reduced with caution.

Spot Silver – Current Market Price $61.50

50-week MA: $64.44 (this is the key short-term resistance)
INTRADAY VIEW: Spot silver has to trade over $60.59 to rise to $63.50, $65.26 and more.
Intraday sell-off will be there only if spot silver trades below $60.59 for eight consecutive trading hours today or tomorrow.
Spot silver will also crash if it does not break the 50-day simple moving average around $64.44 by the end of July.
Views are intraday unless otherwise specified.
Low-risk traders and low-risk takers trading in silver (spot, future, and ETF) should preferably be intraday traders till the end of August. I expect a big gap to open in Asia (Singapore open) every day till the end of August in spot silver.
A systematic investment plan (SIP) or monthly SIP (physical or ETF, your choice) is the best way to invest in silver for the low-risk takers.
Derivative trading in silver is not for the low-risk takers.
Please assess your own risk profile if you intend to do derivative trade in silver or trade in silver futures in any commodity exchange of the world.

DISCLAIMER: The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.

The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.

I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.

Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT