Traders will either (i) book profit on long gold positions and (ii) be long for gold and silver next week. Silver looks headed for $40.00 and more in the short term. Silver is much more bullish than gold in the short term. In my past twenty-two years, in the precious metals space, I have seen silver prices crashing in April in most months. The chance of an April silver crash is very low this year due to historical unending “Trade Wars and retaliatory trade tariff”. But still, I will be extra cautious in my short-term silver investment in April month.
Trump’s automobile tariff will test the cohesion among NATO members and friends of Uthe SA. The proposed automobile import tariff will hit NATO members in a bigger way than nations that are anti-USA. Iraq, Afghanistan Libya, Vietnam, and other wars past 1950 would not have been possible without the exceptional support of NATO members to the USA. Gold demand (physical ETF etc) will rise in a very big way among NATO countries. Asia is a buyer and Asia will continue to be a big buyer of physical gold. Central banks of Europe will continue to increase gold reserves at a much faster pace than most of us expect.
Protective trade policies will be there in a much bigger way by every nation. Trump will be the president of the USA for the next four years. In the upcoming four years, nations (affected by the trade tariff war) will build industrial capacities (wherever they can) to reduce imports. I am sure a lot of large US corporations will be kicked out once Trump goes. (after four years). If Asia unifies (India, Russia, China, South Korea and Japan among others) against Trump’s Trade Tariff, then only USA will see long term negative growth while a united Asia will see a rising growth graph. If Trump hits hard on Asian economic growth, then there is a greater chance of an “Asian Trade Unity”. A United Asia will not need even a pin import from the USA for long-term growth. Asian central banks will continue to increase gold reserves.
I do not think the US February core PCE inflation number will have any impact on the trend of gold and silver. Inflation is expected to rise and/or remain firm in the second quarter in the USA.
SPOT SILVER – current price $34.30
- 10 DAY VIEW: Spot silver can rise to $36.26 and $37.80 by 7th April as long as it trades over $33.50.
- Crash or sell-off will be there if (i) Spot silver does not break the $35.35 initial resistance by the 7th April close. (ii) US stock markets enter a short-term bearish phase in April month.
- Day traders and jobbers of silver trade very carefully. Preferably do not leave any intraday open position for next week.
- Views are intraday.
Disclaimer
The investment ideas provided are purely independent viewpoints and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on this advice, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
I hope that our reader is aware of well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.
Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
- ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
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- PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
- PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
- THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
- ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
- ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE
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