Escalation of Israel's war into the Lebanon region (killing of senior Hezbollah leader in Beirut area) plus a war of warring words between Israel and Turkey resulted in a rise in gold and silver in the USA session. The rise took everyone by surprise with short covering and renewed long positions as the net result.
Copper and base metals pared intraday losses and rose on short covering and some value-based investment demand.
Federal Reserve meeting will be eventful if (X) There is a surprise interest rate cut today and (XI) They are clear on the direction of interest rate cuts. Any economic data-dependent view on interest rate cuts will result in the continuity of current high volatility.
Various newswires have written that the sinking in Chinese demand for precious metals and base metals is the reason for the current sell-off. Precious metals and base metals have risen this year mainly on expectation of rising Chinese demand which has reversed to a falling trend in June and July. I believe that these are just cyclical factors. I will prefer to use all the crash in the next three months to increase long-term investment in precious metals. However, day traders and short-term investors need to be fence-sitters.
SPOT Gold – (Current market price $2415.60)
- TODAY VIEW: Spot gold has to trade over $2396.50 today to rise to $2466.80, $2488.70 and more.
- Mild sell-off will be there if spot gold trades below $2404.00
- Crash or sell off will be there if spot gold does not break $2432.00 by tomorrow's close.
Disclaimer
- The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
- The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
- I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.
Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
- ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
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- PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
- PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
- THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
- ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
- ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE
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