Asian Metals Market Update for 3rd September

September 03, 2024

There will be US economic data releases from today until Friday. Volatility will be very high, and/or there can be some very sharp two-way price moves in all metals and energies. More and more traders are betting on a 0.50% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 18th.

I would prefer to be on the sidelines today, tomorrow, and Thursday. Buyers and short sellers both need to be extra cautious for the next three days.

Option traders will start taking positions in gold, silver, and copper for an end-January expiry. Naked Call options are being offered by almost everyone (ignoring high premiums) in gold, silver, and copper. Any hints of a strong US economy (may be, who knows) will result in an increase in naked put option bets and naked short selling in the future.

History suggests that global stock markets have crashed (temporarily) after the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. It remains to be seen if there will be a sell-off on or from the third week of September. Precious and base metals will also sell off in case of a stock plunge just before or after the Federal Reserve meeting. The difference in 2024 is that every Tom, Dick, and Harry knows the historical trend and is prepared.

COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2024

TODAY VIEW: Gold December has to trade over $2519.00 to rise to $2544.00, and more.
Mild sell-off will be there if gold in December trades below $2519.00 to $2508.70 and $2494.10 and more.

NYMEX/WTI CRUDE OIL NEAR DATED FUTURE

SEPTEMBER TECHNICAL VIEW
Key Supports: $64.80 and $69.20
Key Resistances: $82.20 and $86.61
View till 30th September: Crude Oil needs to trade over $69.20 till 30th September on a daily closing basis to rise to $82.25 and more.
Crash or sell till 30th September will be there if (i) There is a daily close $69.20 for a minimum of five consecutive trading sessions.
CRUDE OIL WILL BREAK FREE FROM $68-$86 WIDER TRADING RANGE EITHER IN SEPTEMBER MONTH OR AFTER THE RESULT OF THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IS DECLARED.
SEPTEMBER TO DECEMBER TECHNICAL VIEW:
View till 31^st December: Crude Oil needs to trade over $64.30 till 31^st December on a daily closing basis to rise to $86.61 and $91.90
Crash or sell till 31^st December will be there if There is a daily close of 67.00 for a minimum of ten consecutive trading sessions.
THE SLOWDOWN IN CHINA IS THE REASON FOR CRUDE OIL TRADING IN THE $70-$85 RANGE. IN MY VIEW CRUDE OIL WILL SEE A SUSTAINED BREAK OF $90.00 IF AND THERE IS CONFIRMATION THAT CHINA IS ON A GROWTH TRAJECTORY.
Key support till 31^st December: $63.50
Key resistance till 31^st December: $89.80.

Disclaimer

The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.

Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT