Asian Metals Market Update for 4th October 2024

The big question is whether USA will be dragged once again the middle east war. Reuters news says that USA is discussing strikes on Iranian oil facilities as retaliation of Iran’s missile attack on Israel. Lebanese army has also attacked Israel is a new development. More number of nations against Israel will need to be kept a close watch. UK and Eurozone reaction has been neutral. Probably the political leadership in Europe (including UK) are fearing a mass unrest if they take side of Israel. UK, France, Belgium (in my view) in Europe are suppliers of “Jihadi John” to the Islamic state and worldwide Islamic terror.

Any direct involvement of conflict with Iran by USA should result in spot gold nearing $3000 or even breaking past $3000. US economic data releases etc will have a temporary impact if and when there is a confirmation of USA involving itself in the conflict with Iran. We also to keep a close watch on trend of crude oil price. If crude oil continues to rise for the next thirty days, then there will be readjustment of inflation outlook for Q1 of next year and readjustment of interest rate outlook of Q1 of next year.

• Big six weeks ahead for global business and global financial market.
• Focus on less profit but there has to be a profit in all business.
• Capital protection has to be the motive for those zero-hero traders.
• “Wait and Trade” and not “Trade and Wait” for the next six weeks. This will be possible only if we have done correctly the end of the week technical analysis. Swing traders may move into the chaotic world of “Trade and Wait”. My preference is to use data at the end of the week for technical instead of end of the day or use of swing trading techniques.
• Physical buyers and physical sellers of industrial metals should avoid looking at every day’s news to prevent getting into the quagmire of unprofitable business decisions.

Inability of spot gold to break $2700 implies that traders are sitting on the sidelines. Spot gold needs a sustained fall below $2600 (minimum two consecutive days of daily close below $2600) for a sell off. If not then there will buyers on significant price fall. Silver is bullish. One needs to look for weekend short covering in copper.

China is open next week. Full impact will be felt two days after China reopens.

Comex Silver December – Current Market price $3238.00

• 5 DAY VIEW: CME silver December can rise to $3398.00 and $3490.50 by next week as long as it trades over $3140.00.
• Crash or sell off (if any) will be there if silver December does not break initial resistance of $3310.20 by 11^th October close.
• Head-Shoulder formation on the technical charts indicates bullish trend for silver. A crash in US stock markets is needed and/or failure to break key resistance is needed to reverse the trend to short term bearish.

Disclaimer

• The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
• The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
• I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.

Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

1. ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
2. Follow us on Twitter @chintankarnani
3. PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
4. PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
5. THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
6. ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
7. ALL NEWS IS TAKEN  FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
8. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE