Asian Metals Market Update for 7th April

April 07, 2025

I am not surprised by the plunge in silver price. It was on the expected line. Since 2003, silver prices have crashed in April month in most years. But one should use the April crash in silver to increase investment for the long term. Twenty percent fall to twenty-five percent fall in silver (from the highs) is always a part and parcel of the long-term bullish trend.

Stop losses were triggered by an overnight crash in gold, silver, and copper. The subsequent recovery makes me believe that the correction is over in silver and copper.

Silver and copper, whenever they fall, have a history of wider range price consolidation for a long time before the next big rise/fall. It remains to be seen whether copper/silver will consolidate (after the bottom) or will pare losses quickly.

Gold will find buyers on dips till $2900. Gold needs to trade below $2900 for a minimum of seven consecutive trading sessions for a confirmed short-term bearish trend. $2800-$3200 could be the wider trading range for spot gold. For the rest of the 2025 calendar year, spot gold is bullish as long as it trades over $2800 on a daily closing basis.

Bullish factors for gold such as (i) Continued central bank buying (ii) Increasing interest in gold ETF demand (iii) Safe haven demand away from the US dollar (iv) Higher retail physical demand on crashes are all there.

Gold has not fallen alone. All asset classes, which are easily tradeable crashed after the announcement of country-wise trade tariffs by Trump. Gold is an outperformer when trillions of US dollars are wiped out from global financial markets.

Incoming news on the Trade Tariff War will be the key. The long-term damage to the US dollar and US investment has been done. A reconciliation between the USA and the rest of the world (if any) on the trade tariff front will not stop nations from reducing dependence on the USA for growth and needs. Gold is still the best safe haven. I personally do intend to start a new monthly SIP in silver ETF in India and also buy physical silver.

Not an easy time for short-term investors and intraday traders. Avoiding short-term trading losses is as good as making a profit under current circumstances.

SPOT SILVER – current price $30.18

100% retracement is around $27.68. This is the key medium-term support.
The 50-week simple moving average is around $30.57
The 100-week simple moving average is around $27.20.
View for the rest of April: Spot silver can see rallies to $34.87 and more as long as it trades over $27.68.
Crash or sell-off will be there if (i) Spot silver does not break the $32.21 initial key resistance. (ii) A daily close below $29.50 for four consecutive trading sessions will also cause another big crash.
Day traders and jobbers of silver trade very carefully. Preferably do not leave any intraday open position for next week.
A continued plunge in US stock markets will also result in a sell-off in silver. The trend of US stock futures will directly impact silver prices in the next thirty days.

Disclaimer

The investment ideas provided are purely independent viewpoints and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.

The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on this advice, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.

I hope that our reader is aware of well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.

Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT