There are buyers on dips in gold, silver, and copper. Buying interest or short term investment interest in silver and copper is very high. Everyone (in India) is buying silver for the short term. The sustained price trend reversal (from August lows) is a positive sign for silver. It will be very difficult for silver to fall below $17.00 for the rest of the year. Silver can break past $22.00 in case it does not fall below $17.00 in the next fourty days.
Gold is also a buy on crashes strategy as long as it trades over $1660. Spot will rise to $1820 if it trades over $1830 between 13th September and 23rd September (after US August CPI numbers and two days after FOMC meeting.)
The two weeks ahead are big weeks for gold, silver, and copper. The positive sign is that the Hindu festive season in India will begin from 26th September and continue till 25th October. There will be good jewelery sales and physical demand in this period. There will be very good gold demand in India if gold price falls nears Rs.50500 per ten grams current price is around Rs.51500 for 22 carat purity).
The common man is buying physical silver ion India . They will continue to do so as long as price trades over Rs.50,000 per kg. (current silver price is around Rs.56500 per kilogram).
European central bank raised interest rates by 75 bps yesterday. ECB will raise interest rates in all the meeting for the rest of the year. US dollar index will loose the interest rate advantage before the end of the year. Euro/Usd will break past 1.10000 if there is a very warm winter in Europe.
However, day traders and jobbers need to remain on the sidelines today.
- Key intraday support: $1707.20
- Key intraday resistance: $1734.50 and $1761.00
- Spot gold has to trade over $1720.00 to be in an intraday bullish zone and rise to $1761.30 and $1782.60.
- Spot gold will crash if it does not break $1734.00 today.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (October 2022) – current market price $84.00)
- Crude oil has to trade over $82.00 to rise to $90.10.
- There will be sellers only if crude oil trades below $82.00.
COMEX COPPER DECEMBER 2022 (current market price $360.40)
- Copper can rise to $368.10 and $377.60 as long as it trades over $349.
MCX NATURAL GAS SEPTEMBER – current market price Rs.645.60)
- 100 DAY MA: Rs.621.80
- 50 DAY MA: Rs.634.80
- MCX natural gas September has to trade over Rs.621.80 to rise to Rs.670.00 and Rs.705.80.
- MCX natural gas September will crash only if it trades below Rs.621.80 till next week.
(prices in Indian Rupees above)