Today, tomorrow, and Monday’s rise (if any) in gold and silver will be called a month end profit taking or a month end short covering. Right now gold and silver are looking bullish. There will be a short covering rally if price rises both in London and USA.
The general perception among traders is that the Federal Reserve chairman is comfortable with a stronger US dollar. Powell will not say anything which will start a bearish phase in the greenback. I am not looking at September interest rate hike clues in Powell’s speech tomorrow. Markets are way ahead w.r.t interest rate hikes for the rest of the year by the Federal Reserve.
Inflation control measures and its success/failure by Federal Reserve and all central banks is where my focus is. Electricity bills world over are way over the affordability index. (I am saved because I live in India.) Food prices rise is not even tip of the iceberg. Food price rise will be an untamable dragon from the fourth quarter. Outlook is hyper bullish for 2023 global food prices. The sector which will suffer are consumer durable and other discretionary spending. We will not die if we use our mobile phones and laptop for an extra year. We will not die if we stop watching live sport matches in pay per view mode. The biggest risk to global economy are a combination of electricity prices and food prices till end of 2023. Interest rates will continue to rise and mass riots will be there world over and sustained recession will be there if cost of survival continue to rise and reach the sun.
Spot Silver :
- Key intraday supports: $18.87
- Key intraday resistances: $19.44 and $19.76
- Silver has to trade over $18.87 to rise to $19.76 and $20.30.
MCX CRUDE OIL SEPTEMBER (current market price Rs.7616.00)
- Key intraday support: Rs.7328
- Key intraday resistance: Rs.7743
- 50-day MA: Rs.7880
- MCX Crude oil September has to trade over Rs.7625 today to continue its rise and target Rs.7880, Rs.7919, and Rs.8180 (by tomorrow or next week).
- There will be sell-off only if MCX crude oil September trades below initial support of Rs.7538 to Rs.7387, Rs.7328 and Rs.7035.
(prices are in Indian Rupees above)