Asian Metals Market Update: Indians increasing their long-term gold portfolio allocations

Comex Report for 20^th March 2023

• Spot gold needs to trade over $1970 to be in an intraday bullish zone.

I am seeing a lot of Indians increasing their long term portfolio allocation to gold by over ten percent. Equities and bonds will see a reduction in favor of gold. This is happening not just in India but globally. Significant price fall or significant price correction gold will be met by an equally larger demand. Short term bear market days will be very few and limited. Forget of a medium-term bear market in gold till the world does not find a suitable replacement to US dollar.  

Corrections or price falls between $100 to $300 will be a part and parcel of the bullish trend. Day traders, weekly traders, fortnightly traders and even monthly traders have to remain on the sidelines. They can use a short selling strategy if and when needed to make a quick buck.

Central banks are balming up the banking crisis. Global central banks are making a combined effort to soothe the nervousness of retail traders. Rescue packages are in place. The electronic money printing machine is in place. Indirect interest rate cuts are being done by almost every central bank.

UBS is buying Credit Suisse for $3.20 billion. Central banks including the Fed, the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan pledged to deepen support for liquidity, by increasing the frequency of seven-day dollar-swap operations from weekly to daily. More news will trickle as the days passes and the week passes. This is truly a “Passover Week” for global financial markets.

I just hope that central banks do not get spooked by retail investors. If gold rises this week and trades over $2000, then the real headache will begin for central banks and stock traders alike. It is just a watch and watch. Bear market rallies are always huge. It remains to been seen if (a) Gold has formed a short term top last week and (b) Whether stock rally will be a bear market rally or the beginning of a medium term rally.

Spot Gold

• Daily support: $1948.40, $1958.10 and $1970.10
• Daily resistance: $1992.20, $2008.60, and $2030.20
• Gold needs to trade over $1970.10 till Wednesday to be in a bullish zone and rise to $2030.50 and more.
• Mild sell off will be there if gold trades below $1970.10 to $1948.40.
• Crash/sell off will be there in case spot gold does not break $2008.40 by Wednesday close to $1908 and $1876.
• Trend between 4:00 pm Indian Time and 10:00 pm Indian Time is the key for gold.

Spot Silver:

• Daily Support: $21.60 and $22.10
• Daily Resistance: $23.01
• Spot silver has to trade over $22.10 to rise to $23.01 and $23.80
• Crash/sell off will be there only if silver trades $22.10 after London opens to $21.60 and $21.06.

COMEX GOLD APRIL 2023

• Key supports are: $1942.60 and $1956.00
• Key resistances are: $2000.70
• Gold has to trade over 1956.00 to rise to $2009.20 and $2028.00.
• Crash or sell off will also be there if gold trades below $1990 after London AM Fix. (after 3:35 pm Indian Time).

COMEX SILVER MAY 2023

• Key price to watch: $2230.00
• Silver must trade over $2230.00 to be in an intraday bullish and rise to $2276 and $2376.
• Crash or another wave of sell off will be there if Comex silver trades below $2230 to $2196 and $2146.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (April 2023) 

• Crude oil has to trade over $64.40 to rise to $72.00.
• Sell off will be there if crude oil trades below $64.40.

COMEX COPPER MAY 2023

• Copper has to trade over $386.20 to rise to $402.00.
• Crash or sell off will be there only if copper trades below $386.20.

LME COPPER SPOT (Current Market Price: $8624.00)

• Key support: $8370 and $8496
• Key resistance: $8847
• Copper has to trade over $8496 to rise to $8973 and $9267.
• Copper will break free from $8300-$9300 wider trading range and form a new trading range in the next three weeks.

LME NICKEL SPOT (Current Market Price: $23545.00)

• Key support: $22988.00
• Key resistance: $24044 and $24706
• Nickel needs to trade over $23046 to rise to $25161.
• As long as nickel trades over $22000, short term downside risk will be limited.

Key US economic data releases till 31^st March 2023

• 22^nd March: FOMC (interest rate and interest rate projection.
• 23^rd March: Bank of England Meeting.
• 24^th March: Core Durable Goods (February).
• 28^th March: CB Consumer Confidence (March)
• 30^th March: GDP (Q4), PCE (Q4), Real consumer spending.
• 31^st March: Personal Income (February), Personal spending (February), Core PCE (February),