The trading sentiment is very weak among precious metal dealers and base metal dealers. Those who did not hedge in futures have incurred losses on their physical stocks. Physical delivery times have increased. Orders are taken first and later brought by dealers. No one is even buying an extra gram of base metal as prices are falling everyday. The pace of fall is scary. Physical dealers are never concerned of the fall in price of metals. Disorderly fall causes panic and losses.
Copper dealers in India are mentally prepared for $6000 before the end of the month. Copper dealers in India are not prepared for a price below $5000 this year. They do not want price to remain below $6000 for a long time. The general consensus is that $9000 in copper will not be reached before early 2024.
I expect very good physical silver demand in India today. If silver crashes like yesterday, then physical buyers will vanish. Silver price have a risk of twenty percent under the worst case scenario with $30.00 by next year.
The real reason why silver crashed since April is the overhype. JP Morgan and the likes took advantage of the same and ensured that silver traded below $24.00 for a very long time. A lot of people went long in silver yesterday around $19.00 in comex futures. They are worried. They will book a loss if silver price trades with a falling bias today and Monday. A lot of people are still buying silver futures on dips as they see limited downside risk from here. My recommendation is to buy physical silver today (depending on the premium in your nation) and also buy far dated naked call options.
For the first time I see some Federal Reserve speakers saying that traders are ahead w.r.t interest rate hike in July. Energy prices are the key driver for US inflation. If Biden wants then crude oil price can fall to $60.00 in less than a fortnight. Simply allow Venezuela to sell crude oil freely and crude oil will trade below $60.00 for the next few years. Venezuela has the largest crude oil reserves in the world. USA and its NATO allies do not want crude oil prices to fall.
The world is at the mercy of USA and UK. Biden and the Federal Reserve wants a recession. They want to take over nations with high debts. Indirect financial colonization is happening and will continue for the next few years. I am told by my cousin brother yesterday that a crash in US inflation in October and November will ensure a thumping victory for Democrats in US senate elections in November. US senate elections seriousness will begin only from September. Instead of looking at the interest rate outlook, I will prefer to invest my time in analyzing the outlook for crude oil prices. I remain hyper bullish on natural gas prices. The current price rise in natural gas is just the floating tip of the iceberg.
Spot Silver: (current market price $18.3250)
- Key intraday supports: $17.76
- Key intraday resistances: $18.93
- Silver has to trade over $17.76 till end August to be in a long term bullish zone.
- There will be a free fall and a long term technical breakdown if silver trades below $17.76 and $16.95 and $14.70.
- Silver also has to trade over $17.76 till 28th July close to have a chance of a short covering rally.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (August 2022) current market price $96.40.
- The technical correction is over in crude oil.
- As long as crude oil trades over $88.00, it can rise back to $110 and more.
- Crude oil needs to trade over $88.00 for two consecutive weeks to be in a short term bearish zone and near $60.00.
- Crude oil is never about demand fundamentals. It has always been about momentum and suppliers.
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