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Asian Metals Market Update: Very low inventories

Everyone is bullish on gold and silver for next year. Even I am bullish on gold and silver for next year. I will prefer to use all crash in gold and silver before end November to invest for Holi (India), Easter, and summer of 2023. Gold and silver prices are nearing the bottom but no one really knows what is the bottom.

To me as long as gold trade over $1550-$1580 zone, the long term bullish trend is intact. I will prefer to use all the crash till $1580 to invest for next year. Silver, (if copper trades below $6900 for a few weeks), then can fall to $17.00 and $15.50 and later march to $30.00 next year. Copper in the long term will target $12000+. (in 2024). But in the short term, no one really knows where and when price will form a long term bottom.

Very low inventories is maintained by large corporates in all industrial metals in India. Uncertain economic outlook is preventing increase in long positions and increase in inventories in base metals.

All the Federal Reserve speakers are continuously speaking on continued hike in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. A 0.75% interest rate hike is 100% factored in by the markets for 2nd November. Ukraine, results of US senate elections, US October jobs numbers and outlook on US interest rates till Q1 of 2023 will impact investment decision for al asset classes till the first week December. Strategy is simple, sit on cash, invest for six months, if there is a big crash in gold, silver, and copper before end November.

I believe that the tone will reverse of Federal reserve speakers w.r.t interest rate stance once the results of US Senate elections are over. US president Biden’s view on US economy and the policies will see a sea change after the US senate elections on 9th November (for Asians). US dollar index should form a multi year top before the announcement of US senate election result.

Day traders and jobbers have to remain on the side-lines.


  • Daily Support: $1632.00 and $1641.00
  • Daily Resistance: $1666.00
  • Gold has to trade over $1645.00 to rise to $1678.00 and more.
  • Gold will crash if it trades below $1645.00 to $1632.90 and $1610.10.


  • Daily Support: $1831.30.
  • Daily Resistance: $1946.00
  • Silver has to trade over $1831 to rise to $1946.00 and $1991.00.
  • Silver will crash if it trades below $1831.
  • Silver will also crash if it does not break $1912.90 by Thursday close.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (November 2022) 

  • Crude oil has to trade over $81.60 to rise to $87.50 and $90.00.
  • Crude oil will crash if it trades below $81.60 to $78.00.


  • Copper has to trade over $328.00-$330 zone to rise to $344.00 and $353.00.
  • There will be another wave of sell off if copper trades below $328.00.

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