Gold SWOT: Platinum Extended Its Steep Rally to a 17-Year High

Strengths

• The best performing precious metal for the past week was palladium, up 16.06%, with futures rising to around $1,720 an ounce, the highest level since January 2023, as ETF holdings continue to edge higher and investors position for tighter market conditions. Supply concerns are growing, with Nornickel forecasting a 100,000-ounce deficit in 2026, underscoring expectations of a structurally tighter palladium market.
• Platinum extended its steep rally to a 17-year high, driven by tight supplies and elevated trading activity in a new Chinese futures contract. The metal has more than doubled this year, set for the biggest annual gain in Bloomberg data going back to 1987. The surge comes as the London market shows signs of tightening, with exports to China being robust this year and optimism for the nation’s demand being bolstered as futures recently began trading on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, according to Bloomberg.

• The successful Tahltan IBA referendum vote marks a pivotal milestone in de-risking Eskay Creek, with this positive outcome leading CIBC to believe Skeena is well positioned to achieve several additional de-risking milestones over the next six months.

Weaknesses

• The worst performing precious metal for the past week was gold, still up 0.97%. Swiss gold exports fell 15% to 109.5 tons in November, led by a 92% month-on-month slump in shipments to India, according to the Swiss Federal Customs Administration. India, historically sensitive to higher gold prices, may be waiting for a pullback before buying.
• Equinox Gold announced the sale of its Brazilian assets to CMOC Group for gross proceeds of $1,015M, including $900M upfront and up to $115M in production-linked contingent payments. The selling price was nearly 50% below street valuations, making Equinox one of the worst-performing gold stocks this week, though proceeds will reduce debt.
• Côte d’Ivoire implemented an 8% revenue royalty this week, backdated to January 2025, up from 3–6% on a sliding scale, according to RBC. Montage Gold, with operations in the country, was largely unaffected, rising nearly 7% this week, supported by two new exploration permits that strengthen its strategic footprint around the Koné project and add the Wendé property.

Opportunities

• Paragon Advanced Labs Inc. (TSXV: PALS) began trading and announced that its sample preparation facility for photon assay ore-grade analysis is now operational and accepting customers. The company’s PhotonAssay™ technology offers faster results than traditional fire assay, which can take weeks to months, and Paragon plans to deploy the largest commercial fleet of PhotonAssay™ units globally by 1H 2027.
• Goldman Sachs expects gold to reach a record $4,900 per ounce in 2026, driven by sustained central-bank buying and potential U.S. interest-rate cuts. Despite broader commodity volatility, the outlook for gold remains strongly positive with upside risks.
• RBC reports that royalty valuations have compressed sharply since September, while producer valuations have corrected from post-spring expansion. At spot gold, royalty coverage trades at 1.66x P/NAV versus 1.11x for producers, with forward 12-month FCF/EV yields of 4.1% for royalties and 7.4% for producers. RBC expects royalty companies to outperform in Q1 2026.

Threats

• Nordgold is reportedly considering the sale of its gold-mining assets in Burkina Faso, according to Izvestiya, citing three people familiar with the matter. The deal could be worth around $1 billion, highlighting concerns about operating safely in Burkina Faso or the possibility of finding a willing buyer at current gold prices.
• Bloomberg notes that while gold miners can sometimes outperform gold by wide margins, these gains are usually short-lived. DataTrek identified five cases since 2010 where miners outpaced gold by at least 30 percentage points over 100 days, including one ending in September this year. Historically, gold typically regains its lead soon after, occurring in three of the four past instances.
• Illegal miners have reportedly entered Newmont Corp.'s multi-billion-dollar gold project in northern Peru, Prime Minister Ernesto Alvarez announced. The Minas Conga site, owned by Newmont, has faced halted development since 2010 due to farmer protests and violent opposition, and is now being partly exploited by unauthorized mining activity. Peruvian officials are struggling to address the surge in illegal mining, as the government supports a disputed permit while the country’s mining industry chamber remains opposed.