The Captain’s daily SP500 chart.
Our count may be slightly off, but we believe we are getting ever closer to a “Wave Five Finale”.
We are still working on wave -v-, and within wave -v-, we are still moving higher in wave .iii., which has a projected endpoint of:
.iii. = 2.618.i. = 6535.10.
We expect (slightly) higher prices as wave .iii. continues, although this market is very stretched and wave .iii. may not make it to our next projected endpoint, before it ends.
After wave .iii. ends we expect a wave .iv. correction that should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave .iii. rally.
Trading Recommendation: Stay Flat (but not for long!).
Active Positions: Flat!
US 10-Year Bond Yield:
The Captain’s daily bond yield chart.
Wave i is still underway, as shown on our Daily Chart.
Within wave i, we completed wave (i) at 1.266%, wave (ii) at 0.504, wave (iii) at 4.997% and it is now looking like we are still falling in a complex wave -e- of (iv).
We expect this market to fall back to at least the 4.205% low to complete all of wave -e- and all of our wave (iv) bullish triangle formation.
It could also be possible that wave -e- is becoming a triangle formation, which if it does will not reach the 4.205% level before it ends.
After our wave (iv) bullish triangle ends we expect to thrust higher is wave (v), which has a minimum target of the wave (iii) high of 4.997%.
A spike high to 6.00% would not be a surprise to us based on the size of the wave (iv) bullish triangle.
Major resistance is our red downtrend line connecting 4.809% and 4.629%.
Trading Recommendation: Go long risking to 3.880%.
Active Positions: Long risking to 3.880%.
Gold Market Update
The Captain’s daily gold chart.
We are moving higher in a multi-year wave (3) of 3, that has a current projected endpoint of:
(3) = 1.618(1) = 4298.80.
We are working on the assumption that wave *iii* is still underway, as shown on the Weekly Gold Chart, with wave $iii$ ending at the 3500.30 high, and if that is the case, then we are now falling in wave $iv$, which we are now assuming is becoming a bullish triangle formation as follows:
!a! = 3120.90.
!b! = 3451.60.
!c! = 3247.50.
!d! = 3439.10.
!e! = 3268.20, if complete.
We cannot rule the possibility that this bullish triangle could expand and extend, and, in this case, the internal wave would look like:
!a! = 3120.90.
!b! = 3451.60.
!c! is now underway with a minimum target of 3247.50.
!d! rally after wave !c! ends.
!e! drop after wave !d! ends.
If wave !e! and our wave $iv$ bullish triangle are now complete, we should be starting a sharp thrust higher in wave $v$... to all-time new highs!
Trading Recommendation: Go long gold. Use puts as stops.
Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!
Thank-you!
Captain Ewave & Crew
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