The Captain’s 120 minute SP500 chart.
The weekly chart.
Analysis:
Long Term Update:
The SP500 was sharply higher this past week, reaching a high of 6845.77, closing at 6816.89!
Within v of V, wave (iv) ended at 4835.04 and we are moving higher in wave (v), which has the following internal wave count:
.i. = 5381.55.
.ii. = 5104.34.
.iii. = 6427.02.
.iv. = 6214.43.
.v. = 7002.28, if complete?
At the moment we do not have an alternate count to provide, but we suspect a run to all-time new highs appears likely.
Active Positions: Flat!
Active Positions: Flat!
Active Positions: Flat… for now!
Crude Oil
Analysis:
Wave ii ended at the 54.89 low and we now moving sharply higher in wave iii. Within wave iii, we have completed wave (i) at the 119.48 high and we are now correcting in wave (ii), which has retracement levels as shown in our Daily Posts.
Within wave (ii) we completed wave -a- at 76.73 and likely wave -b- at 117.63, and if that is the case then we should expect a wave -c- drop back to at least the wave -a- low of 76.73 to complete all of wave (ii).
After wave (ii) ends we expect a sharp move higher in wave (iii).
Our initial projection for the completion of wave iii is:
iii = 1.618i= 331.28.
In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:
C = A = 153.77.
C = 1.618A = 244.78.
Active Positions: Long oil futures, with put options as our stops!
Gold
The Captain’s weekly gold chart.
Analysis:
Long Term Update:
Gold was higher again this past week reaching a high of 4856.30, and closing at 4748.20!
Our current long-term gold count starting from the 35.20 low made back in 1971, which remains incomplete, is as follows:
1 = 1920.80.
2 = 1046.20.
3:
i = 2073.40.
ii = 1614.40.
iii:
(i) = 2073.30.
(ii) = 1810.10.
(iii):
-i- = 2790.40.
-ii- = 2539.90.
-iii- = 3500.30.
-iv- triangle = 3363.60.
-v- = 5595.40, to complete all of wave (iii).
(iv):
-a-:
*a*= 4404.10.
*b* = 5419.30.
*c* = 4098.80, to complete all of wave -a- of (iv).
-b-:
*a* rally is now underway.
A very powerful wave (iii) of iii is now complete at the 5595.40 high and we now falling in a multi-month wave (iv), correction that has the following retracement levels:
23.6% = 4702.00
38.2% = 4149.40.
Within wave (iv), we still believe that it is going to take some time for it to be complete, so we are suggesting that only wave -a- of (iv) ended at 4098.80 and if that is the case than we are starting to move higher in wave -b-.
Since wave -a- was a three-wave pattern then we expect wave -b- to rally back to at least near the all-time high… or perhaps even exceed it before it ends!
If wave (iv) becomes a flat or irregular type correction than after wave -b- ends, then we expect a wave -c- drop back to at least the wave -a- low of 4098.80 before all of wave (iv) ends.
If wave (iv) becomes a large bullish triangle then it will consist of 5 legs, and we will NOT return to the wave -a- low, before all of wave (iv) ends.
Within wave -b- we are moving higher in wave *a*.
In all cases, we should expect gold to move higher in wave -b- over the next couple of weeks. Wave -b- must consist of at least 1 three wave pattern, but it could have up to 3 such patterns, separated by a wave *x*.
Projections for the end of wave 3 are:
3 = 2.618(1) = 5936.00.
3 = 4.236(1) = 9033.60!
Active Positions: Flat… for now!
Active Positions: Flat!
Thank-you!
Captain Ewave & Crew
Website: www.captainewave.com
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