SP500
The Captain’s daily SP500 chart.
Analysis:
Our internal wave count for wave -v- is as follows:
.i. = 5381.55.
.ii. = 5104.34.
.iii. = 6427.02.
.iv. = 6214.43
.v.:
$i$ = 6920.21.
$ii$ = 6521.92.
$iii$ = 7002.38.
$iv$ = 6636.04.
$v$ rally is underway with a minimum target of 7002.38.
Wave $iv$ likely ended at the 6636.04 low, and if that is the case then we should be heading higher in wave $v$, to all-time (and very temporary) new highs.
Only a break now of the 6521.92 low (SP500 Cash) would be the signal that the US500 has peaked, although it would still be short our minimum target of: 7002.38.
Active Positions: Flat!
Active Positions: Flat… for now!
Crude Oil
The Captain’s weekly oil chart.
Analysis:
Crude was sharply higher this past week, reaching a high of 119.48, and closing at 98.78!
Wave ii ended at the 54.89 low and we now moving sharply higher in wave iii. Within wave iii, we have completed wave (i) at the 119.48 high and we are now correcting in wave (ii), which has retracement levels as shown in our Daily Post.
We do not think that wave (ii) is complete.
After wave (ii) ends we expect a sharp move higher in wave (iii).
Our initial projection (which we set long before the war) for the completion of wave iii is:
iii = 1.618i= 331.28!
In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:
C = A = 153.77.
C = 1.618A = 244.78.
Active Positions: Long oil futures, with put options as our stops!
Gold
The Captain’s weekly gold chart.
Analysis:
Gold is generally moving in a multi-decade incomplete impulsive fashion, from the 35.20 low made back in 1970. Within this impulsive move, we have the following count:
1 = 1920.80.
2 = 1046.20.
3:
i = 2073.40.
ii = 1614.40
iii:
(i) = 2073.30.
(ii) = 1810.10.
(iii) = 5595.40.
(iv): drop is underway.
-a- = 4404.10.
-b- = 5419.30, if complete.
-c- drop after wave -b- ends.
(v) rally after wave (iv) ends.
Wave (iii) is now complete at the 5595.40 high and we are falling in a multi-month wave (iv) correction, which has the following retracement levels:
23.6% = 4702.10.
38.2% = 4396.70.
We have already reached our retracement zone, but we doubt that all of wave (iv) is already complete and while time is not part of Ewave analysis, we suspect that it will take many months for it to do so.
For the time being we are assuming that wave (iv) will be a 3-wave corrective pattern, so we likely completed all of wave -a- at the 4404.10 low and if that is the case then we are moving higher in wave -b-, which has a last retracement level of:
78.6% = 5340.50
We have reached our 78.6% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave -b-, perhaps at the 5419.30 high, and the start of another drop in wave -c at least back to the wave -a- low, to complete all of wave (iv). Wave (iv) could also become more complex.
Active Positions: Flat!
Thank-you!
Captain Ewave & Crew
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