SP500:
The Captain’s 120minute SP500 chart.
Analysis:
We have updated our count within all of wave v to suggest the following:
- = 5669.67.
- = 4835.04.
- = 7002.28.
- = 6316.91.
(v):
-i- is still underway.
We are now moving higher in wave -i- of (v), and after wave -i- ends we expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave -i- rally.
Trading Recommendation: Stay Flat
Active Positions: Flat!
Gold:
The Captain’s daily gold chart.
Analysis:
Gold is generally moving in a multi-decade incomplete impulsive fashion, form the 35.20 low made back in 1970. Within this impulsive move, we have the following count:
1 = 1920.80.
2 = 1046.20.
3:
i = 2073.40.
ii = 1614.40
iii:
(i) = 2073.30.
(ii) = 1810.10.
(iii) = 5595.40.
(iv):
-a-:
*a* = 4404.10.
*b* = 5419.30.
*c* = 4099.60, to complete all of wave -a-.
-b-:
*a* rally is now underway.
(v) rally after wave (iv) ends.
Wave (iv) is going to become more complex than just a simple 3-wave corrective pattern, as it looks like we only completed wave -a- at the 4099.60 low.
If that is the case, we should be moving higher in wave -b-, which could rally to or even exceed the all time high of 5595.50 before it ends. After wave -b- ends we expect another drop back to at least the wave -a- low of 4099.60.
The other option to watch is that wave (iv) is becoming a large bullish triangle, and it this case, we will not be re-visiting the wave a- low of 4099.60 again, before this correction ends.
After wave (iv) ends we expect another rally to all time new highs in wave (v).
Trading Recommendation: Flat!
Active Positions: Flat!
GDX:
The Captain’s daily GDX chart.
Analysis:
We are continuing to rally in a multi-year wave C thrust higher.
Within wave C, we completed wave (i) at the 42.47 high and all of wave (ii) at the 38.58 low. We should now be moving sharply higher in wave (iii), and we do not have an updated projected endpoint to provide at this moment.
Within wave (iii), it looks like we are subdividing with wave *i* ending at 46.71 and wave *ii* at 40.32, if that is the case then we are still moving higher in wave *iii*, for which we do not have another endpoint to share at the moment.
Within wave *iii*, we completed wave $i$ at 53.25, wave $ii$ at 45.10, wave $iii$ at 113.50 and wave $iv$ at 78.74. We are now moving higher in wave !i! of $v$.
Within wave $v$, we likely completed wave !i! at the 101.33 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave !ii!, which has the following retracement levels:
50% = 90.04.
61.8% = 87.38.
We are still a bit short of our 50% retracement level, so we expect some further weakness, although wave !ii! maybe complete at the 90.21 low, before all of wave !ii! ends. After wave! ii!, ends we expect another sharp rally in wave !iii!.
We are now looking at the possibility that wave $iii$ is extending, if it is then the count would be:
!i! = 113.42
!ii! = 78.75.
!iii! rally is now underway.
Thank-you!
Captain Ewave & Crew
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