USD: Key Wave Counts:
All of wave ^c^ is complete at the 114.75 high and we are now falling in wave ^d^. The wave ^d^ drop must consist of at least one 3 wave pattern, so for the moment we will assume that we are falling in wave a of ^d^.
On our Daily USDX Chart we have shown our count for wave a, and we are now working on the assumption that it is complete at the 100.42 low. We should now be rallying in wave b, which has the following retracement levels:
50% = 107.59;
61.8% = 109.28.
We expect the rally in the USDX to continue as we head higher but for the time being we are assuming that wave b is becoming a simple 3 wave corrective pattern.
We suspect that wave -a- of b will be ending soon, perhaps at the 104.61 high. After wave -a- ends we expect a wave -b- drop that will be followed by another wave -c- rally to complete all of wave b.
After wave b ends, we expect another big drop in wave c.
The other option is that wave -v- of a is going to extend with only wave $i$ of -v- ending at the 100.42 low and we are now rallying in wave $ii$, which has a last retracement level of:
78.6% = 104.70.
In this option to remain valid we should not move much above the 78.6% retracement level. We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $ii$ and the start of another drop in wave $iii$ of -v- of a.
Trading Recommendation: Stay flat.
Active Positions: Flat!
We are now rallying in wave iii, and within wave iii, all of wave -i- of (i) ended at the 24.39 high and wave -ii- at the 19.94 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:
-iii- = 1.618-i- = 30.26.
Our powerful wave $i$ of -iii- rally ended at the 26.23 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:
50% = 23.09;
61.8% = 22.34.
We have now entered our retracement zone so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave $ii$, perhaps at the 22.84 low, and the start of another sharp rally in wave $iii$!
Next major resistance is the 24.19 level.
Trading Recommendation: Go long, with puts as stops.
Active Positions: Long, with puts as stops!
We are now working on the assumption that all of wave *d* ended at the 2080.70 spike high. If that is the case, then we are likely now falling in wave *e*. We do not know which internal wave pattern wave *e* will become but for the moment will assume that is it is a simple 3 wave pattern.
We are now working on the assumption that all of wave ^a^ ended at the 1932.20 low and if that is the case then we are now starting to rally higher in wave ^b^. After wave ^b^ ends we expect a another drop in wave ^c^ to complete all of wave *e* and all of the very large bullish wave .iv. triangle.
We hope to provide our projections for the end of wave ^b^ in the next few days.
Wave *e* can fall as low as the wave *c* low of 1614.90 and our bullish triangle formation will remain valid.
Wave *e* could also become a bullish triangle.
Next major resistance for gold is the 1984.00/1985.00 level.
Our current projected target for the end of wave -iii- is:
-iii- = 4.236-i- = 2531.10.
Trading Recommendation: Go Long gold. Use puts as stops.
Active Positions: Long gold, with puts as stops!
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