Gold has long been described as the ultimate safe haven, the asset investors turn to when political tensions rise and confidence in financial systems begins to weaken. Yet whenever geopolitical instability intensifies and the gold price fails to surge immediately to new highs, some observers begin to question whether the metal still performs the role it is supposed to play.
Jan Skoyles touched on a version of this question in yesterday’s GoldCoreTV episode. If the global environment appears increasingly fragile, with conflicts continuing and alliances shifting in ways that make the future harder to predict, why is gold not racing relentlessly higher? Especially in the midst of the escalating war in the Middle East? One might have expected this week’s letter to be about gold touching new highs.
Some might think that those of us who advocate for gold’s role as a safe haven now have a new adversary in the form of central bank sales, following reports from Poland. However, we would argue the opposite.
According to Bloomberg, the National Bank of Poland is considering whether part of the country’s gold reserves could be sold to help finance a significant expansion of defence spending. Poland currently holds around 550 tonnes of gold and officials have explored whether selling some of that reserve could raise roughly $13 billion in the near term, potentially contributing to a defence programme that might eventually reach $50 billion.
You can see why the safe haven question remains in play. Poland has been one of the most active buyers of gold anywhere in the world over the past several years. In both 2024 and 2025 the central bank added more than one hundred tonnes to its reserves. Governor Adam Glapiński has repeatedly emphasised that building those reserves formed part of a broader strategy to strengthen the country’s financial security during a period of growing geopolitical uncertainty.
Only last year he described gold as the safest asset a nation could hold when the international environment becomes unstable. So understandably gold’s naysayers are asking if gold functions as the ultimate store of security, why consider selling it precisely when tensions in Eastern Europe remain high?
Well, like anything we struggle to understand in life, you need to try and look at things from a different perspective. When the situation is viewed from Warsaw rather than from a financial market theory then we not only gain a better understanding, but we see that this is in fact gold doing exactly as it is supposed to.
Poland sits directly on NATO’s eastern frontier and has watched the war in Ukraine continue for several years only a short distance from its borders. Defence spending has already increased significantly and the government has made clear that it intends to expand military capabilities further. When a country finds itself confronting that strategic reality, the conversation about resources naturally broadens.
Gold sits within the category of national reserves. Those reserves exist for a purpose which is to support the country in times of need. Governments accumulate them over long periods in order to strengthen their ability to respond when circumstances become more demanding. During stable periods the presence of those reserves sits happily in the background of policy discussions. When geopolitical tensions begin shaping national priorities, their significance becomes far more concrete.
From that perspective Poland’s discussion does not undermine gold’s reputation as a strategic asset. It simply illustrates how reserves function when governments begin preparing for a more uncertain environment. In fact, one could argue the opposite. If gold had not been accumulated over the past several years, Poland would not have this option available today. The reserves that were built during calmer periods now provide the government with financial flexibility at a moment when security concerns have become more urgent. That is precisely what insurance is supposed to do. It is there to be drawn upon when circumstances demand it.
In that sense the very fact that Poland can even contemplate funding defense through its gold reserves is evidence that the strategy of holding gold has already served its purpose.
Some commentators might be tempted to draw comparisons with Britain’s gold sales at the end of the 1990s. At that time the then Chancellor Gordon Brown directed the UK Treasury to sell a large portion of the nation’s reserves. As a result of the timing of the announcement the reserves we sold off near to the lowest point in the gold market, a decision that later became known as “Brown’s Bottom.” The episode remains one of the most frequently cited examples of poorly timed central bank policy.
Yet the circumstances surrounding that decision bear little resemblance to the situation Poland faces today.
Britain sold gold during a period when many policymakers believed the metal had become largely irrelevant within the modern financial system. Government bonds and foreign currency reserves were regarded as more efficient assets to hold, particularly because they produced income. Gold, which offered no yield, was viewed as a leftover from an earlier monetary era.
Poland’s actions over the past several years reflect the opposite conclusion. The country accumulated gold because policymakers believed the global environment was becoming more unpredictable and that holding physical reserves would strengthen national resilience.
The recent news from Poland is by no means evidence that the judgment has suddenly changed. Whether the country ultimately decides to sell part of its reserves remains uncertain. Political discussions of this scale often evolve as governments weigh their options.
Right now what the episode demonstrates is that when nations prepare for uncertain times, gold continues to occupy a central place in the conversation.
Countries accumulate it because it provides financial sovereignty, resilience, and options when the world becomes more unpredictable. Poland’s debate does not weaken the case for gold as a safe haven. If anything, it shows that the metal is doing what it was intended to do. It has provided insurance for a world that has grown considerably more dangerous.
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