The coming year is particularly uncertain. The economy could be wildly different based on how certain events unfold. To use a favorite central banker term, it is “path dependent.”
The resulting acceleration and amplification of gold’s breakout rally will start enticing investors to return, fueling a major upleg. Fed tightening shouldn’t matter, as Fed officials talk tough but rarely..
To my eye gold is the most bullish looking market on the chart above. A nice, long-term Cup and Handle with the Handle still in construction. But if history is a guide, gold would remain under pressure..
The FOMC minutes showed a much more hawkish Fed than markets had been expecting. They specifically highlighted their concerns with inflation (no longer transitory).
So, even if all the new jobs were filled right away AND the number of jobs remaining open dropped by 529,000, that still leaves 3.76 million people who quit and did not take a job.
Inflation “stuck” and currently unrelenting at multi-decade highs. Imminent (obvious) Fed tapering commencement, but now, with actual balance-sheet runoff (QT) potential..
Without question, investing in the precious metals sector has been a pain in the ass for nearly the entire 20 years I’ve been involved. The official intervention, which has become shamelessly blatant..
Their record of price appreciation over the past two decades alone suggests that metals have the potential to bounce back and outperform in the years ahead – especially if stagflation..
