I believe there was a leakage in US May nonfarm payrolls last Friday. The excuse and guse of stopping gold buying by the Chinese central bank was just media hype. Since March, every Tom, Dick, and Harry have been telling me that Chinese central bank gold buying and Chinese retail demand are the only reason for the bullish trend in gold and silver. They do not know that the Chinese central bank has been a net buyer of gold since 2003. Their pace of buying may vary. However, the Chinese Central Bank has been the overall buyer since 2003.
Let’s come to the speculative aspect or short-term hot money aspect of trading. I have been writing that short-term hot money is there in precious metals and base metals. (from the month of May.) Buy-on-dips traders have been making a profit since March of this year. A few (not all or the majority) incurred losses on Friday.
French president calling unexpected shock elections will ensure an early reversal to a bullish trend in gold and silver prices. The UK is already going to election on 4th July. Now France. Mass ratings are not favorable for leaders of the UK and France. Hence they are taking a chance of calling an early election. I repeat, political uncertainty is always bullish for gold and silver.
If the US dollar Index rises sharply due to a falling euro, then all metals can trade with a softer bias. But again, FOMC, CPI, and PPI will have a far larger impact than elections in two key nations in Europe.
Short-term trading is different from medium-term trading and long-term investing. Boom-bust price moves or extreme price moves will there in short-term (thirty days to sixty days) period. But nothing will change the long-term view Unless there is a change in long-term fundamentals.
Spot Silver – intraday view (current price $29.40)
- Fifty-day simple moving average is around $28.80
- Spot silver has to trade over $29.49 to be in an intraday bullish zone and rise to $29.88, $30.31 and $31.02.
- Mild sell-off will be below $29.29.
- A daily close below $28.80 for a minimum of five consecutive trading sessions is needed for a confirmed medium-term bearish trend in silver.
CME Platinum – intraday view (current price $976.00)
- Platinum July future has to trade over $974.00 to rise to $1025.00 and more.
- Mild sell-off will be there below $974.00.
- $935.00 is the key support in case of a crash this week.
There will be a technical breakdown in all precious metals and base metals in case falling trend continues after USA opens and but more one hours after US stock markets are open. This week can be really very big for all asset classes.
Disclaimer
- The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
- The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
- I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.
Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
- ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
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- PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
- PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
- THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
- ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
- ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE
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