Silver crashed in Asia. Gold and silver are overall firm. Physical demand will be high in precious metals and base metals. The next three trading sessions are very crucial from a technical perspective. Thursday’s closing and the technical trend from the closing price is the key. Interest rate cut out will not have any significant impact on global financial markets unless the Federal Reserve confirms November meeting as the first interest rate cut.
As usual temporary hiring will be high in the sectors related to travel, tourism and entertainment till middle of September. We need to focus on growth outlook in sectors which are not impacted by the summer season in USA, UK and Eurozone. If these sectors show a negative growth rate or negative growth outlook, then a mild global slowdown will come in around Christmas and New Year. Lagging impact is there in everything. Pace of rise of copper and base metals will slowdown. Long term bullish trend will not change for base metals unless there is a big shrinkage in global liquidity.
Medium Portfolio readjustment will be there after the Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow. The five-year cycle of post covid will end in 2025. Global recession à hyper global growth à slowdown à asset bubbles burst will end (in 2025) is what we are seeing. World is in a hyper growth stage now. Slowdown and asset bubble burst will start from the final quarter of this year will high chance of asset bubble burst before the end 2025.
The street murmur is that a falling inflation globally should be accompanied by a falling gold price. There will be a delinking of gold price from inflation and other economic data releases worldwide. The big crash or an unexpected medium term bearish trend will be there if and only if gold price trades below $2240.00 for a minimum of sixty consecutive sessions. If not then, then all the price crash (if any) will be short lived. Either way, June to middle of September historically has been a not so bullish trend for gold. Wider range consolidation say between $2180-$2550 can be there in case spot gold does not break $2410 by 8th July.
Spot Gold – intraday view (current price $2303.90)
- Spot gold has to trade over $2297.00 to rise to $2333.80 and $2348.50 and more.
- Crash or sell off will be there if and only if spot gold trades below $2297 both after London AM Fix and London PM Fix to $2284.10 and $2259.60.
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Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
- ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
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- PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
- THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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- ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE
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