Momentum and sentiment are hyper bullish for gold and silver. This momentum makes me believe that the rising precious metal trend will ignore the Federal Reserve meeting. (barring some mild corrections.).
Festival season in India will begin from 22nd October to 23rd October. Hindu marriage season (for winter) will begin from 1st November till 20th December. Weight-wise and carat-wise, India’s gold jewellery demand will be pathetic at the current price in the festive season and/or in a rising price trend.
BUT silver jewellery demand (in India) should surpass the best of forecasts during the festive season and during the marriage season.
Every living creature is barking that spot silver will rise to $100.00+ an ounce in the near term and that silver is highly cheap at the current price. I am bullish on silver. But I am worried about the pace of rise of silver and not the actual rise. For example, in May 2024, every Tom, Dick, and Harry was saying that LME copper would rise to $40,000 per tonne. (In May 2024, copper LME was trading above $11,000 per tonne.). Copper, LME fell to $8669.50 per tonne between May 2024 and February 2025. This is my concern with the silver price rise. I expect the copper price to rise to $40,000+ in the next five years. But the crash caused huge losses to traders and physical dealers alike. Silver will near the copper moment, if not now, then before March 2026.
I am seeing a looming global economic depression anytime in the next three years. I am using the word “Economic Depression” and not Recession. Most of us have experienced economic recession, not economic depression. If the gold price rises thirty percent to forty percent every year, then it will signal the homecoming of a global “economic depression”. Central bank's obsessive weapon of economic growth (i) Zero Interest Rate Policy and (ii) Negative Interest Rate Policy will not prevent a global economic depression if, iff, and iffff gold price consistently rises over thirty percent every year. Physical gold and only physical gold will be our savior in the looming global economic depression. (The current AI hype will have its Y2K moment, which will be followed by a global economic depression.).
Stay invested in gold and silver. Buy on significant crashes for investment. (not for intraday trading). There should be some very sharp two-way price moves in gold and silver this week and till the middle of October. Intraday traders need to fasten their trading seat belts till the middle of October.
SPOT SILVER – current price $42.16
- Spot silver can rise to $44.09 and more as long as it trades over $41.64
- Crash or sell off will be there if spot silver has a daily close below $41.64 for four consecutive trading sessions.
- Spot silver will also crash if it does not break $43.47 by 3rd October close,
- Over brought. Hyper bullish retail sentiment.
- There can be some very sharp two way price moves.
- Intraday traders and jobbers should remain on the sidelines due to key central bank meeting this week.
- Views are intraday.
Disclaimer
The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.
Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
- ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
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- PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
- PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
- THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
- ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
- ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE
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