Asian Metals Market Update for 23rd May 2024

There will be a big technical breakdown, buy-stop losses will be triggered, and intraday short selling will increase INCASE FALLING TREND IS THERE TODAY.

May FOMC minutes indicate concerns over inflation. There will be uncertainty on the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, 12^th June or 30^th July. A very low May US nonfarm payroll along with increase in the unemployment rate to four percent or more is needed for a June interest rate cut. NFP is on 7^th June. Even a big crash in April's core PCE inflation number on 31^st May will increase the chance of an interest rate cut on 12^th June. NFP, CPI, and Core PCE numbers of the USA released every month will impact the interest rate decisions of the Federal Reserve for the rest of the year.

Position squaring and rebuilding has started for June and also for the summertime in the USA, UK, and Europe. In my view more longs than shorts in gold and silver. Short positions in copper and base metals have started from yesterday in my view.

Long-term investors of gold and silver are suggested to hold onto their investment. Do not panic even if there is a short-lived, short-term bearish trend. Copper and base metals will be very wild as they will be caught between increasing physical demand and intraday short sellers (in case there is a falling trend after LME opens.)

Spot Silver – intraday view

• Spot silver has to trade over $30.61 to be in an intraday bullish zone and rise to $31.60 and $32.50.
• There will be sellers on rise as long as spot silver trades below $30.61 to $30.17 and $30.01 and $29.32.

LME Copper Spot – intraday view

• Copper has to trade over $10237.70 today, tomorrow, and next week (till 31st May) to be in a very short-term bullish zone and rise to $10645.50, $10882 and more.
• Crash or sell-off will be there if LME copper cash trades below $10237.70 after LME opens and till days close.

Disclaimer

• The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
• The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
• I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.

Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

1. ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
2. Follow us on Twitter @chintankarnani
3. PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
4. PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
5. THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
6. ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
7. ALL NEWS IS TAKEN  FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
8. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE