Traders will start taking positions for the month of June. There are only buyers on dips for June. Price behavior suggests Israel needs a close watch. The whole of Asia is against Israel after Sunday's killings. More and more European nations are recognizing Palestine as a nation. (after Rafa's bombardment). Israel has the support of the USA and UK, India, and a very small bunch of nations. Anti-Israel theme globally will only increase the pace of the rise of gold and silver. Iran is in a political limbo. No one really knows where is the direction of Iranian political leaders.
UBS increased the silver price target to $40.00 in the next twelve months with an average price of $34.00 soon. It is not new to me, but I expect the silver price to rise to $50.00 and not fall below $26.00. BUT BUT BUT, history says that whenever large hedge funds give an exceptional price target in the media, there is a very sharp price crash (from the highs) after around a month. This is my experience.
I would prefer to be very cautious in precious metals and base metals for the next two weeks. I am a firm believer that any investment or asset class which attract herd buying or herd price volatility is bound to see a short-term bust anytime soon. Long term is bullish trend will not be impacted by incoming US economic data releases and/or any central bank actions (like Japan's intervention in USD/JPY) or inactions and even major changes to central bank policies.
Gold August – intraday view
- Key price to watch: $2379.50
- Gold August can rise to $2409.20, $2461.50 as long as it trades over $2365.00.
- Mild selloff will be there if gold June trades below $2364.00.
Crude Oil WTI/Nymex – intraday view
- Crude oil has to trade over $78.40 to rise to $82.60 and more.
- Mild sell off will be there if crude oil trades below $78.40.
The trend of crude oil prices till the US elections in early November is very important. A rising crude oil price will dent any chance of an interest rate cut in the four Federal Reserve meetings before the US elections. Industrial metals prices are in a bullish trend. If energy price rises sharply then an increase in the cost of production will be passed on to the end consumer. Inflation will rise and that only a higher base will reduce the headline inflation. We need to keep a close watch on crude oil price till early November.
Disclaimer
- The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
- The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
- I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.
Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
- ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
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- PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
- PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
- THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
- ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
- ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE
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