- Trump has fired the chief of the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) after the release of the US July Non-Farm Payrolls.
- Fed Governor Adriana Kugler unexpectedly announced her resignation.
- Trump has asked Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to resign as well.
- Non-Farm Payrolls: July 73,000. (i) May be revised down to 19,000. (ii) June revised down to 14,000.
- USA is deploying “Ohio Class Nuclear Submarines” around Russia as an escalation to the Ukraine-Russia War. The risk of an all-out indirect war between Russia and the USA with Ukraine as a mask is very high.
FIVE THINGS MERIT A THOUGHT ON THE ABOVE NEWS
ONE: US economic data releases, including jobs and inflation numbers, are not reliable. They are used to spoof retail traders and retail investors. I am sure that the Federal Reserve chairman and his team had knowledge of the pathetic job growth in the months of May and June.
TWO: Trump will control the Federal Reserve much sooner than most of us expect. Two Federal Reserve governors have openly revolted against Chairman Powell in the June meeting. Their view on TV channels is in sync with what Trump wants. A third Federal Reserve governor has resigned.
THREE: Zero interest rates by the Federal Reserve will come in much faster than that currently factored. Trump's control of the Federal Reserve implies that his wish for zero interest rates will be there much sooner than we expect.
FOUR: Gold and silver may not see a medium-term bearish trend, as everyone knows that the Federal Reserve's Independence is compromised under Trump Rule. Short-term volatility could be on the highest side.
FIVE: Any escalation of the Ukraine-Russia conflict to near nuclear conflict with the USA will result in spot gold rising to $4000 very quickly, with an outside chance of $5000. Keep a close watch on nuclear escalation news. Do not ignore nuclear escalation. BUT Asian stock will plunge, recession in Asia will come quickly if there is an over seventy percent chance of the use of nuclear weapons in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Better to maintain lower inventory levels of copper and non-ferrous metals for the next two months.
US-China Trade tariff Deal News and US-Mexico trade tariff deal news will need to be closely watched. Trade very carefully for the next two weeks. Review the trend after every six hours every day for the next two weeks.
SPOT SILVER – current price $37.10
- 50 day MA: $37.08
- 100 day MA: $34.90
- Spot silver has to trade over $36.80 to rise to $37.92, $38.40, and more.
- A mild sell-off will be there if spot silver trades below $36.80.
- There can be some very sharp two-way price moves.
- Views are intraday.
Disclaimer
The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.
Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
- ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
- Follow us on Twitter @chintankarnani
- PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
- PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
- THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
- ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
- ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE
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