Asian Metals Market Update for 5th May 2025

May 05, 2025

Interest rates will not be cut at the 7th May FOMC meeting.
US April non-farm payrolls on the high end of expectations suggest US corporations expect a trade deal soon.

SILVER PRICE TREND BETWEEN MAY AND SEPTEMBER EVERY YEAR – A HISTORICAL TREND PERSPECTIVE.

SILVER: NEAR DATED COMEX/CME FUTURES
% RISE/FALL IN CME SILVER PRICE BETWEEN MAY TO SEPTEMBER EVERY YEAR		HIGH - LOW GAP BETWEEN MAY TO SEPTEPMER


2019	14.08%	$548.50
2020	57.66%	$1,515.50
2021	-14.71%	$749.00
2022	-17.37%	$594.50
2023	-10.20%	$429.50
2024	19.20%	$676.50

Between May to September, dated CME silver futures have not consistently been bullish.
A very wide trading range has been there. Bulls and bears have fought it out in silver between May to September every year.
Silver has been a day trader's paradise and a short-term investor's nightmare in the past (between May to September every year).
I do not expect silver to be a short-term investor's nightmare this year. Bulls and bears will fight it out in silver in the next five months, but only when the price nears key resistances or price nears key supports.
The average high-low price gap has been $752.25.
Long-term investors of silver need to be mentally prepared to accept a large number of days of Mark-To-Market (MTM) losses in silver, but the end result should be good profit.

I have invested in physical silver in March and April with an expected return of around twenty percent (in Indian Rupee physical silver value between Diwali and Christmas. A close friend has asked whether I still expect the same return. My answer, I am not changing my bullish outlook on silver for the rest of the year. There is a set of factors or bases on which I have made my target. The so-called “basis risk” has not changed. A change in my “basis risk” will make me alter my expected return in silver. Since I have invested in physical silver, I do not intend to use a stop loss or sell physical silver at a loss in case of a crash. I would prefer to hold my physical silver, even if there is a negative return. Silver, fundamental, is very strong, and a global recession (if any) will reduce the pace of rise but not the overall long-term bullish trend.

My personal opinion is that future trading in commodities in India should be between one day to thirty days and not more. Strict trailing stop losses have to be there in commodity futures trading. A bad day and capital erosion can happen in a millisecond in commodity futures trading. First-time traders or news traders of commodity futures need to study historical volatility before entering into commodity futures trading. Treat commodities as an investment and not an online poker game or cricket betting game.

SPOT SILVER – current price $32.15

Spot silver can rise to $32.60 and $33.23 and more as long as it trades over $31.60.
A crash or sell-off will be there if spot silver trades below $31.60 today and tomorrow.
Views are intraday.

Disclaimer

The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.

The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.

I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.

Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT