Asian central banks cutting interest rates aggressively, to tide over the negative impact of Trump's trade war, will be bullish for silver, copper, and non-ferrous metals. Other Federal Reserve, almost every central bank has cut interest rates and may cut interest rates in the future, if circumstances require.
This is the beginning of the rise in spot silver price with $39.43, $41.83, and $44.19 as key resistances. Fifty-day simple moving average around $32.95 is now the support till the end of July. I know there are still huge short positions in silver. Some will incur a loss. Some will convert shorts into longs. A massive short term hot money will move to spot silver in case it manages to trade over $34.80 till 11th July.
My experience is that a silver breakout rise is generally ferocious, it continues between three weeks to three months to seven months. Silver also falls between thirty percent to fifty percent (from the highs), if and when there is a parabolic rise. Now $30.00 is the lower price base (till end January 2026) with infinity as price target.
Even the donkey on social media is interested in investing silver at $36.00. Investment ideas trending on social media create FOMO in that asset class or investment idea. Silver got its FOMO moment last week.
I trade and invest only in silver. I do not trade/invest in gold. I am trying to convey is most traders incur huge losses in silver whenever there is a big breakout or big breakdown in silver. Today, there is a breakout. After a few months, there will be a massive breakdown in silver. Do not get into the quagmire of silver trading losses if and when there is a major trend reversal.
Super high-volatility in the gold price has attracted people of all ages to do intraday trading in gold. I came across someone in Delhi whose main source of income is just gold trading and crypto trading. He uses cryptocurrencies like Tether to pay for the app. No Indian rupees, no US dollars. No Taxes. CFD trading apps are taking money in cryptocurrencies. The ratio of Gold to bitcoin, the ratio of gold to key crypto currencies, will now need close watch.
SPOT GOLD – current price $3306.30
- Spot gold has to trade over $3275.00 to rise to $3344, $3379 and more.
- Crash or sell off will be there if spot gold trades below $3275.00 today and tomorrow.
- There can be some very sharp two way price moves.
- Views are intraday.
Disclaimer
The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.
Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
- ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
- Follow us on Twitter @chintankarnani
- PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
- PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
- THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
- ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
- ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE
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