In this video though, I want to talk about the dollar. I am pretty much convinced at this point, I may have to see another week or two of action. But I'm pretty convinced that this kind of semi-parabolic move ended the secular bull market, that began in 2008...and the dollar is now transitioning into a secular bear market. So this obviously was a three-year cycle low.
I think this was a slightly short three-year cycle low and the reason that is this rally was able to move above these peaks here but it did not make a higher high and then rolled over. This was not necessarily left or right translated at the top, kind of right in the middle of a normal duration, intermediate cycle. So it could have gone either way. It did hold above this pivot. So, it was not a failed intermediate cycle. But I think, (again, I might I'm probably going to have to see another week or two of action) but this intermediate cycle here is preparing to left translate.
Which means it's going to come down and it's going to break this pivot. It will probably also break this pivot. And so what I'm saying is, it looks like this is a new three-year cycle and it is potentially already left translated, which is extremely bearish. All of the money printing coming out of 2020 and then all of the money printing over the last year to rescue the banking sector that was in trouble has finally broken the dollar. So, we're probably starting a new secular bear market. And let me expand this chart because I think we're in a similar situation as we were in 2000.
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