Gold SWOT: China Is Set To Ease Licensing Rules for Gold Imports and Exports To Facilitate Trade

Strengths

• The best-performing precious metal for the past week was silver, up 6.00%. Silver futures surged to an intraday high of $82.16 per ounce on Friday as hopes for a U.S.–Iran peace deal and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz lifted precious metals for a fourth straight session. In addition, rising demand for solar power to offset higher energy prices has pulled forward demand for silver.

• According to Scotia, SSR Mining reported first quarter 2026 results with adjusted EPS of $1.15 versus consensus of $0.84, on production of 109.9K ounces versus an estimate of 107.7K ounces, at all-in sustaining costs of $2,433 per ounce.
• According to BMO, Torex’s first quarter EPS beat expectations, with costs coming in below forecasts and free cash flow of $157M exceeding the $133M estimate. The company also announced an enhanced capital returns program, targeting $350M in shareholder returns in 2026, returned $121M in the first quarter, and increased its dividend by 7%.

Weaknesses

• The worst-performing precious metal for the past week was palladium, down 2.88%. Palladium continued to face headwinds as ETFs shed another 366 troy ounces, extending a year-to-date decline of 9.3% in fund holdings to just over 1 million ounces. Supply-side pressures also weighed, with Zimbabwe’s largest PGM producer, Zimplats, reporting a 56% quarter-over-quarter decline in total 6E production, including a sharp drop in palladium output to 29,694 ounces after a prolonged smelter shutdown. However, roughly 63,000 ounces of accumulated concentrate stocks are expected to be processed by December.
• Gold declined earlier in the week as escalating Middle East tensions threatened a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, keeping energy prices elevated and fueling inflation risks. Bullion fell as much as 2.4% after reports that the United Arab Emirates’ air defense systems were responding to a missile threat from Iran, while Tehran warned it was tightening control over the Strait of Hormuz, according to Bloomberg. Gold later recovered as interest rates moved lower and geopolitical tensions eased.
• Two contractor employees at Sibanye-Stillwater’s Kloof 8 shaft near Glenharvie, South Africa, died when an inspection platform detached and descended uncontrollably down the shaft during preparations for a routine inspection on May 3.

Opportunities

• China is set to ease licensing rules for gold imports and exports to facilitate trade, according to an announcement by the People’s Bank of China and the General Administration of Customs. The move will expand the use of “multi-use permits” for importing and exporting gold starting June 1, according to a notice published on April 30.
• Australian gold producers Regis Resources and Vault Minerals agreed to merge in an all-scrip deal to create a combined entity valued at around A$10.7 billion ($7.67 billion). Under the proposal, Regis will acquire all shares in Vault by offering 0.6947 Regis shares for each Vault share, implying a deal value of A$5.15 billion, according to UBS. Vault shares rose 9% on the announcement.
• Tether added 210K ounces of gold in first quarter 2026, down from an average of 700K ounces over the previous two quarters. However, the value of its gold holdings rose to $19.8B due to higher gold prices, with gold now representing 10.3% of reserves, up from 9.0% last quarter, according to Canaccord.

Threats

• U.S. inflation and rising rate expectations have weighed on gold prices, while higher input costs, not just diesel, continue to pressure earnings and cash flow expectations. Last year was not quite a “sell in May” environment, but the gold sector did experience a flat period from June to August as the market digested disappointing fiscal year 2026 guidance, according to UBS.
• Treasuries sold off earlier in the week, pushing 30-year yields to their highest level since July as traders increased bets that the Federal Reserve may need to reverse course and raise rates to contain inflation following a surge in oil prices. Yields rose by at least seven basis points across the curve on Monday, with 30-year yields reaching 5.03%, according to Bloomberg. However, the move reversed later in the week as expectations for a potential peace deal improved sentiment.
• Orla Mining announced steps it has taken, and is continuing to implement, to safeguard labor rights and address concerns at its Camino Rojo gold mine in Zacatecas, Mexico. This follows a determination by a panel under the Rapid Response Labor Mechanism of the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement. In late March 2026, the panel issued its final ruling concluding there had been a denial of rights related to freedom of association and collective bargaining at Camino Rojo, according to Scotia.