Gold SWOT: Equinox and Orla Mining Have Combined To Create North America’s New Senior Gold Producer

Strengths

• The best-performing precious metal for the week was platinum, but it remained down 3.41%. Lack of progress on extricating the U.S. from Iran-related tensions weighed on credit markets, with yields on the 2-year note jumping 19.5 basis points, while 5-year through 20-year maturities all rose by more than 20 basis points. This strengthened the dollar by 1.43%. South Africa’s gold production rose 17.1% year-over-year (YoY) in March versus 12.8% in February, according to Statistics South Africa. Mining production rose 2.5% YoY versus 9.7% in February, according to Bloomberg.
• Barrick Mining reported a strong start to the year with gold production of 719,000 ounces, ahead of company guidance of 640,000–680,000 ounces and a 6% beat versus Canaccord’s estimate of 677,000 ounces. Costs also came in better, with all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of $1,708 per ounce. 2026 guidance was unchanged, and the board authorized a $3 billion share repurchase program in addition to its dividend.
• K92 Mining reported results modestly ahead of estimates on pre-released production. Solid cost control and positive provisional pricing tailwinds supported earnings. Guidance was reiterated, weighted to the second half of the year on the ongoing Stage 3 mill ramp-up and supporting infrastructure development, according to RBC.

Weaknesses

• The worst-performing precious metal for the week was silver, down 5.10%, as surging interest rates weighed on credit markets, effectively tightening financial conditions without Federal Reserve intervention. While silver is taking the hit this week, it remains a long-term market with multiple reasons to maintain a diversified portfolio. The chart below shows monthly silver imports by China. Over most of the past six years, China imported around 300 million grams of silver, or just under 10 million ounces per month. However, the most recent data point in March shows imports jumped to 836 million grams, or nearly 27 million ounces.

• First Majestic Silver Corp. shares fell after the miner reported first-quarter revenue that trailed the high end of analyst estimates. Adjusted EPS also came in slightly below consensus, according to Bloomberg. The stock declined by about 6.7%, slightly more than the average silver mining peer performance for the week.
• China’s Zhaojin Mining Industry Co. shares slumped as much as 15% in Hong Kong, the most since 2011, after a fatal accident at one of its mines prompted a broader suspension of production across its operations. An incident at a mine under construction during slag removal resulted in three fatalities and two injuries, the company said in a filing.

Opportunities

• China’s Zhaojin Mining Industry Co. is looking to acquire more gold mines in Africa and other regions, Chief Investment Officer Xu Jianzhuo said in an interview. The Shandong-based miner is targeting assets in West African countries with stable political regimes such as Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Guinea, as Western miners continue exiting the region.
• Barrick Mining Corp. said it will repurchase up to $3 billion of its shares as the world’s third-largest gold producer seeks to attract investors ahead of spinning off its North American assets later this year. The latest buyback plan, which would be double last year’s repurchase program, follows a historic rally in gold prices, according to Bloomberg.
• Equinox Gold and Orla Mining announced a definitive agreement for an at-the-market, all-share combination to create a new North American intermediate gold producer with an implied market cap of approximately $18.5 billion. The deal is structured as a merger of equals with no significant price premium for investors. In contrast, Elemental Altus Royalties made an offer to acquire Vizsla Royalties this week for about $239 million, sending Vizsla’s share price up about 17.5% on the announcement.

Threats

• Precious metals refiner Heraeus noted that banks in India have been unable to import gold and silver since the start of the new Indian tax year on April 1, due to the trade ministry delaying the publication of its list of banks eligible to import precious metals until April 17. India is the second-largest jewelry market after China and has little domestic gold production, meaning it relies heavily on imports.
• Gold prices were falling after India’s prime minister told citizens to stop buying the precious metal for a year in an effort to boost the country’s foreign-exchange reserves. Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a speech this past Sunday that citizens should avoid purchasing gold, according to Barron’s.
• India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, more than doubled tariffs on gold and silver to 15% as part of broader austerity measures aimed at cushioning the economy from inflation pressures caused by energy disruptions in the Persian Gulf.