Still Tumbling Down

Payroll moves down (in new jobs) are looking a little less like head fakes (or just getting better at it) as they are down in June for the 4th month in a row. Before anyone makes too much of that, though, I’d point out that this still leaves them higher than they were from August through November of last year when inflation had just started its long trek back upward, unseen because it was buried in the numbers no one was looking at that were faithfully noted all along the way here as a force that would break out in open view for all to see this year.

However, these numbers by ADP, the payroll processing company, have consistently been lower than the Biden-his-time administration numbers for nine of the last ten months. So, someone might be overstating the truth just a little to look good for the election.

Half of the small number of net new jobs were added in leisure and hospitality for the summer.

Real economy matches jobs

While the ADP new-job numbers have persistently been percolating along well below the Bureau of Lying Static’s numbers, they track perfectly with what the economy is doing (which makes sense, given they are based on actual processed payrolls):

That’s the Build-Back-Better economy.

With growth in new manufacturing orders running on average across the US from flat to nowhere for well over a year, while the population soars under new immigration, they help confirm my claim that we are already in a stealth recession, missed only because government numbers fail consistently (and most likely intentionally) to show it. Worse still, these new orders are measured in dollars that are not adjusted for inflation! So, in inflation-adjusted reality, we are seeing fewer and fewer orders, not just declining growth in orders.

Meanwhile, the construction industry has reported the highest number of layoffs since the housing crisis in 2008. That’s not surprising, given that new-home contractors are rolling back construction, as seen in declining permits recently, because the housing market is so badly frozen. It’s even less surprising when you consider how much old office space there is out there that no one wants. Not a lot of reason to build new office space. Construction jobs, given new orders have been down for a year in factories, aren’t likely happening in the industrial sector much either. That leaves, at best, construction jobs in re-configuring office buildings for other uses.