Asian Metals Market Update for 19th March 2026

March 19, 2026

The recent fall in gold and silver was just a correction and nothing else. Copper should have fallen much, much more. $12200 LME is not even a proper correction for me. Why? Because we are all comparing the same to this year's historical highest price. “Demand destruction will be insignificant due to Iran War” is being reflected by all asset classes. Performance of various asset classes in the first three weeks of March is reflective of a mild slowdown in the Western world. Asian economic slowdown (other than China) will not affect the LME price and the CME price.

If the Iran War continues on or after Easter (first week of April), then there could be a recession for a few quarters in Asia (including China). There will be a major price hike in everything that a common man uses from April. The cost of living will rise significantly.

My main focus is on the type of fertilizer availability/unavailability, nitrogen-based, phosphorus-based, sulfate-based, etc., and its impact on the upcoming crop sowing season in May and subsequent months. Decline in crop productivity (in Asia) due to reduced fertilizer supply will hit Asian countries the most. Food exports will stop/reduce this year globally.

The Federal Reserve meeting is over. Interest Rates Unchanged. The Federal Reserve believes that inflation will be transitory. US growth will be mild and can be overcome by a series of interest rate cuts. USA officials are portraying a very positive view on American economy and American corporate profitability. The American elite corporate is the biggest beneficiary of the regime change in Iran and the Iran War.

CME gold April futures expire on 31^st March. Gold inflows from middle east does impact CME physical gold stocks. I personally do not have any information as to the percentage of Middle East gold in the CME gold warehouse. This will keep traders on the edge till 31^st March.

Intraday traders remain on the sidelines. Long-term investors need not worry an iota. I will not be confident whether traders will take the risk and go short tomorrow for Monday in gold and silver.

Spot Silver – Current Market Price $75.93

50 day simple MA: $86.54
100 day simple MA: $78.07
100% retracement key support: $72.04
TODAY VIEW: Spot silver has to trade over $74.60-$75.00 till next week to be in a short-term bullish zone and rise to $81.07 and $83.44.
At current price spot silver is caught between intraday bears and medium term bulls.
Crash or sell off will be there if spot silver trades below $74.60 after London open and till days close and also tomorrow and Monday.
As an intraday trader, I am not going long at current price. I will prefer to wait for London open and then decide.
Views are intraday unless otherwise specified.

DISCLAIMER: The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.

The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.

I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.

Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT