Asian Metals Market Update: 2022 MCX Metals and Energies Technical forecast

2022 TECHNICAL VIEW FOR MCX NEAR TERM FUTURES in the shortest possible words

MCX Gold near term futures: 2022 VIEW: (a) Gold can rise to 52377, 56995, and 59094 in 2022 as long as it trades over 43822. (b) Gold will crash it does not break the initial resistance of 50118 by 18^th April (close) to 43822 and 39544. (c) Gold will move into a medium-term bearish phase if there is a daily close below 46080 for five consecutive trading sessions.

MCX Silver near term futures: 2022 VIEW: (a) Silver can rise to 70798, 78396, and 84845 in 2022 as long as it trades over 54522. (b) Silver will crash it does not break the initial resistance of 70798 by 18^th April (close) to 54522 and 50225. (c) Silver will move into a medium-term bearish phase if there is a daily close below 58819 for five consecutive trading sessions.

MCX Crude Oil near term futures: 2022 VIEW: (a) Crude oil can rise to 7111 and 8442 in 2022 as long as it trades over 4490. (b) Crude oil will crash if it does not break the initial resistance of 6326 by 18^th April (close) to 4140 and 3789. (c) I expect the crude oil price trend to change every two months in 2022. (d) Crude oil will be an investor’s nightmare in 2022 but a weekly trader’s paradise.

MCX Natural Gas near term futures: 2022 VIEW: (a) Natural Gas has to trade over 220.60 to rise to 419.50 and 562.60. (b) Natural gas will crash only if it does not break the initial resistance of 394.40. (c) For the past few year’s natural gas futures have risen sharply between May to October months every year. It remains to be seen whether this trend continues in 2022. (d) Cautious optimism over-hyper bullish trend till 17^th March 2022. In the short term, a daily close below Rs.269.70 for ten trading sessions will cause a bearish trend to 220.60 and 188.10.

MCX Copper near term futures: 2022 VIEW: (a) Copper has to trade over 695.10 on a daily closing basis to rise to 862.70 and 987.20. (b) A bearish trend will be there if copper does not break 802.60 by 24^th May 2022 to 661.90 and 635.50. (c) Copper will also crash if there is a daily close below 717.00 for four consecutive trading sessions.

MCX Nickel near term futures: 2022 VIEW: (a) Nickel has to trade over 1418.70 on a daily closing basis to rise to 1758.80, 1948.40, and 2207.70. (b) Nickel will crash or move into a short-term bearish phase if there is a daily close below 1504 for five consecutive trading session to 1395.30 and 1223.70. 

MCX Zinc near-term futures: 2022 VIEW: (a) Zinc has to trade over 210.40 this year to rise to 335.80, 365.70, and 413.50. (b) Zinc will crash only if 317.60 initial resistance is not broken by 24^th May 2022 to 210.40 and 162.30. (c) A daily close below 269.70 for five consecutive trading sessions will put zinc in a short term bearish phase.

MCX Lead near term futures: 2022 VIEW: (a) Lead has to trade over 161.20 this year to rise to 217.80, 245.60, and 293.40. (b) Lead will crash only if 202.20 initial resistance is not broken by 24^th May 2022 to 129.80 (c) A daily close below 179.30 for five consecutive trading sessions will put lead in a short-term bearish phase.

MCX Aluminum near term futures: 2022 VIEW: (a) Aluminum can rise to 263.50 and 301.70 and 328.10 this year as long as it trades over 163.30. (b) Aluminum will move into a short term bearish phase if there is a daily close below 207.60 for seven trading sessions.

A bit on the base metals price trend

Electricity prices in Europe and air pollution factors in China will affect the production of copper and other industrial metals. A higher electricity price trend in Europe and the world over this year will result in factories producing fewer metals and vice-versa. China has a history of asking factories to shut down if air pollution gets poisonous. Supply news will dictate the trend of base metals this year.

A bit on the crude oil price trend

Sentiment for crude oil is hyper bullish this year. There is the expectation that global crude oil demand will be higher than in the pre-pandemic year. (higher than 2019). A near-normal world will result in a continued rise in crude oil demand this year. Opec and other crude oil-producing nations will not increase production significantly. However, I expect crude oil to be very volatile.

A bit on the natural gas price trend

To me, NG is an invest in crashes strategy. There can be a bearish phase for a few months till end of June (in case there is warmer weather in USA and Europe). Natural gas is the fuel of the future. Short-term investors, short-term traders, and day traders have to remain on the sidelines.

A bit on silver

Use a buy-on dips strategy with a stop loss below 53000. Start buying near-term silver futures below 60,000 till 58000 stop loss below 54000 and a price target of 80,000+ before Diwali of 2022.

TREND OF MCX METALS AND ENERGIES IS INCOMPLETE IF WE DO NOT KNOW US DOLLAR-INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR SPOT) VIEW

Key Moving Averages: 100 day: 74.5225, 200 day: 74.2425, 50 week: 73.9500, 100 week: 74.1575

Usd/Inr View: Rupee has to trade over 73.9500 this year on a weekly closing basis to rise to 76.5475 and 78.6250. (a) Usd/inr will crash or move into a short-term bearish phase if there is a weekly close below 73.9500 for two consecutive weeks to 72.3875, 71.2975 and 70.3100.

The current trend is neutral. Every rising crude oil price, political setback (if any) in key state elections this year and quicker than expected global interest rate hike are the key risk to a weaker usd/inr. BUT the biggest risk is the sharp narrowing of bond yield between India and the rest of the world.

The positives for usd/inr are (i) Sale of key public sector units (PSU) like LIC, oil marketing companies will attract huge forex inflows. (ii) Initial public offering (IPO) by new companies will continue to increase this year as well. (iii) Exports from India will increase as companies look to India as a counter to sanctions imposed on China by NATO and its allies.