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America’s Political and Financial Institutions Are Broken

A contested presidential election, or the next big economic decline could be the tipping point. Who knows? The important thing is to prepare for turbulent times ahead.

An Outrageously Bullish Election Scenario

Oddsmakers Have It Wrong: Vegas odds are currently at 2:1 against Trump, suggesting that news media's Goebbelsian campaign to portray Biden as an easy winner has succeeded.

Caught in a Debt Trap

Our political process can’t reduce spending and/or raise taxes enough to balance the budget, so the debt grows and grows. As it does, paying the interest plus the accumulated debt load pulls more capital away from more productive uses. This depresses economic growth, thereby generating even more spending and debt.

Low Dollar Risky for Gold

With the US dollar so oversold and bearishness on it so universal, there are all kinds of potential catalysts to drive its overdue mean-reversion rally.  They could come from the dollar side based on how pandemic stimulus and upcoming US elections play out

The Copper/Gold Ratio Would Change the Macro

Copper: Pro-cyclical inflation, pro-reflation, pro-economy. Gold: Counter-cyclical, monetary, with inflationary utility.

The Upbeat Downbeat on Housing and Commercial Real Estate

I mentioned in a recent article that the weird thing about this recession is that it is the only one in which personal income has gone up during a recession.

Andrew Maguire: “Gold Is The Anti Dollar”

It’s not a surprise that the gold price is rising given what the Fed is doing to the dollar. As Andrew Maguire explains, gold is the anti-dollar.

Surviving Algo Hell

Over that time, I've seen all sorts of temporary HFT algo correlations that have driven me mad. There was the USDJPY link in 2014-2015. Then there was the yuan link in 2018. But all the while, changes to actual fundamentals drove precious metals prices higher regardless.

Why These Gold Standardites Are Wrong

It’s widely believed that rising quantity of dollars causes rising consumer prices. And a rising gold price too.

Employment’s Recovery Road Comes to an End

Jobs didn’t get much worse in September, but they stopped getting better.

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